Massachusetts Minutemen at Troy Trojans
Final · ESPN+
71–60Last shot · Donovan Oday makes 0-foot tip in layup
At lock: projected MASS 74.09–77.56 TROY
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1581929556
- Winner: Troy (62%)
- Spread: TROY -3.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Under 154.5 (64%)
- Score error (both teams)21
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MASS 74.09–77.56 TROY · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseTROY +0.0 off · MASS +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to TROY
- Market priorBlended 72% toward TROY -2.5 / total 154.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MASS | 38 | 33 | 71 |
| TROY | 28 | 32 | 60 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 6:5965–49
Jacoi Hutchinson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 6:5965–50
Jacoi Hutchinson makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 6:1765–52
Donovan Oday makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:5667–52
Noa Zemljić makes layup (Abdullah Ahmed assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:2267–54
Caua Pacheco makes 17-foot jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:3867–57
Donovan Oday makes 29-foot three point jumper (Jacoi Hutchinson assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:4967–58
Willie Piggott Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2768–58
Junjie Wang makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2769–58
Junjie Wang makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1370–58
Junjie Wang makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1371–58
Junjie Wang makes free throw 2 of 2
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 0:0571–60
Donovan Oday makes 0-foot tip in layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MASS | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Ahmed F · #1 | 17 | 6 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 J. Wang F · #10 | 31 | 18 | 6-17 | 1-4 | 5-7 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 1 |
 D. Wimbley Jr. F · #2 | 32 | 10 | 4-12 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
 J. Clayton G · #3 | 35 | 16 | 6-14 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
 D. Carbuccia G · #0 | 34 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
 H. Helgason F · #14 | 5 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 D. Clerc F · #25 | 8 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
 C. Sylla F · #34 | 14 | 8 | 4-5 | 0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
 N. Zemljić G · #12 | 15 | 11 | 4-5 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 R. Castineyra G · #27 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 C. Martin NA · #6 | 6 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 L. Damjanac F · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Hailey G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Engel G · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Ndjigue G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 71 | 28-65 | 7-24 | 8-15 | 47 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 31 | 14 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MASS | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 28-65 | 22-64 |
| FG% | 43 | 34 |
| 3PT | 7-24 | 7-28 |
| 3P% | 29 | 25 |
| FT | 8-15 | 9-14 |
| FT% | 53 | 64 |
| REB | 47 | 40 |
| OR | 16 | 12 |
| DR | 31 | 28 |
| AST | 16 | 10 |
| STL | 5 | 10 |
| BLK | 10 | 1 |
| TO | 13 | 9 |
| TTO | 1 | 2 |
| ToTO | 13 | 9 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 15 | 15 |
| FBPs | 18 | 4 |
| PIP | 36 | 28 |
| PF | 14 | 17 |
| LL | 25 | 10 |
| LC | 3 | 3 |
| LPCT | 69 | 28 |
At lock MASS 74.09–77.56 TROY · 2.8 pts under 154.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitA. Ahmed · MASS
17 MIN · 6 PTSM. Ikegwuruka · TROY
15 MIN · 4 PTSDonovan Oday · TROY
STAT · 36 MIN · 21 PTS · 8-17 FG · 3-8 3PTJunjie Wang · MASS
STAT · 31 MIN · 18 PTS · 6-17 FG · 1-4 3PTJordan Clayton · MASS
STAT · 35 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-14 FG · 4-10 3PTNoa Zemljić · MASS
STAT · 15 MIN · 11 PTS · 4-5 FG · 2-3 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
UMass vs Troy pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 154.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day