Toledo Rockets at Arkansas State Red Wolves
Final · ESPN+
70–71Last shot · Tameron Ferguson misses free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected TOL 76.97–80.44 ARST
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 70543027
- Winner: Arkansas St (62%)
- Spread: ARST -3.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Under 162.5 (75%)
- Score error (both teams)17
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
TOL 76.97–80.44 ARST · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseARST +0.0 off · TOL +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to ARST
- Market priorBlended 72% toward ARST -3.5 / total 165.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 35 | 35 | 70 |
| ARST | 36 | 35 | 71 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:3659–60
Chris Riddle makes 8-foot floating jump shot (Mynor Strong assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:2059–62
Tameron Ferguson makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:5261–62
Angel Montas Jr. makes 7-foot jumper (Sean Jones assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:4964–62
Chris Riddle makes 23-foot three point jumper (Angel Montas Jr. assists)
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 2:2964–64
Layne Taylor makes 0-foot tip in layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:1966–64
Jaylan Ouwinga makes layup (Sean Jones assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:1066–67
Tameron Ferguson makes 24-foot three point jumper
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 1:3668–67
Angel Montas Jr. makes 0-foot tip in layup
- FT2nd Half 1:3068–68
Jordan Pyke makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:4368–70
Jordan Pyke makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3070–70
Jaylan Ouwinga makes 16-foot jumper (Sean Jones assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:0470–71
Tameron Ferguson makes free throw 1 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| TOL | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Ouwinga F · #32 | 30 | 16 | 8-17 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 3 |
 C. Riddle F · #10 | 24 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
 A. Parks C · #25 | 17 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
 M. Strong G · #5 | 36 | 18 | 6-16 | 3-12 | 3-4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
 S. Jones G · #1 | 33 | 4 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
 R. Porter F · #24 | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 R. Barron F · #23 | 6 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 J. Allen G · #7 | 7 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 W. James Jr. G · #11 | 16 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
 A. Montas Jr. G · #9 | 26 | 16 | 7-16 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
 T. Nwokolo F · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Mattucci G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Johnson G · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 70 | 29-73 | 6-27 | 6-8 | 50 | 21 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 15 | 35 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| TOL | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 29-73 | 25-70 |
| FG% | 40 | 36 |
| 3PT | 6-27 | 11-37 |
| 3P% | 22 | 30 |
| FT | 6-8 | 10-23 |
| FT% | 75 | 43 |
| REB | 50 | 46 |
| OR | 15 | 18 |
| DR | 35 | 28 |
| AST | 21 | 15 |
| STL | 7 | 12 |
| BLK | 3 | 4 |
| TO | 16 | 10 |
| TTO | 1 | 2 |
| ToTO | 16 | 10 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 13 | 15 |
| FBPs | 9 | 12 |
| PIP | 28 | 26 |
| PF | 18 | 15 |
| LL | 4 | 12 |
| LC | 7 | 7 |
| LPCT | 7 | 80 |
At lock TOL 76.97–80.44 ARST · 5.1 pts under 162.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitJ. Ouwinga · TOL
30 MIN · 16 PTSA. Doumbia · ARST
25 MIN · 5 PTSTameron Ferguson · ARST
STAT · 32 MIN · 20 PTS · 8-10 FG · 3-5 3PTMynor Strong · TOL
STAT · 36 MIN · 18 PTS · 6-16 FG · 3-12 3PTAngel Montas Jr. · TOL
STAT · 26 MIN · 16 PTS · 7-16 FG · 1-2 3PTLayne Taylor · ARST
STAT · 30 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-13 FG · 3-9 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Toledo vs Arkansas St pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 162.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day