South Dakota State Jackrabbits at Kansas State Wildcats
Final · ESPN+
68–66Last shot · Brandon Rechsteiner misses 10-foot floating jump shot
At lock: projected SDST 74.50–84.86 KSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 3, 1:46 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1111025126
- Winner: Kansas St (82%)
- Spread: SDST +11.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 159.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)26
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
SDST 74.50–84.86 KSU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseKSU +0.0 off · SDST +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to KSU
- Market priorBlended 86% toward KSU -11.5 / total 159.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SDST | 35 | 33 | 68 |
| KSU | 28 | 38 | 66 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 4:0358–58
Pape N'Diaye makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:4260–58
Joe Sayler makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:1360–60
Isaiah Abraham makes 11-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 2:5161–60
Davis Kern makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:5162–60
Davis Kern makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:3165–60
Davis Kern makes 25-foot three point jumper (Joe Sayler assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:0565–61
Pape N'Diaye makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:0565–62
Pape N'Diaye makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:4068–62
Kalen Garry makes 26-foot three point jumper (Joe Sayler assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:2768–64
Brandon Rechsteiner makes layup
- FT2nd Half 0:3968–65
Isaiah Abraham makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3968–66
Isaiah Abraham makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| SDST | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 D. Kern F · #22 | 37 | 24 | 7-15 | 5-8 | 5-6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
 J. Mekonnen F · #5 | 31 | 14 | 6-11 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
 EJ Ryans G · #7 | 31 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 J. Sayler G · #3 | 36 | 10 | 4-10 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 K. Garry G · #10 | 38 | 14 | 6-11 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 |
 B. Ellwein F · #23 | 6 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 S. Stampley G · #1 | 6 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 T. Buchanan G · #0 | 15 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 J. Van Kalsbeek F · #42 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Y. Yatabare F · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Thompson F · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Squires C · #35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Swearengen G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Rogers G · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Cascio Jensen G · #33 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 68 | 25-57 | 10-24 | 8-13 | 27 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 16 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SDST | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 25-57 | 22-53 |
| FG% | 44 | 42 |
| 3PT | 10-24 | 8-28 |
| 3P% | 42 | 29 |
| FT | 8-13 | 14-18 |
| FT% | 62 | 78 |
| REB | 27 | 34 |
| OR | 7 | 6 |
| DR | 20 | 28 |
| AST | 12 | 12 |
| STL | 8 | 6 |
| BLK | 0 | 3 |
| TO | 10 | 12 |
| TTO | 0 | 2 |
| ToTO | 10 | 12 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 11 | 10 |
| FBPs | 6 | 10 |
| PIP | 26 | 22 |
| PF | 16 | 13 |
| LL | 11 | 7 |
| LC | 5 | 5 |
| LPCT | 61 | 32 |
At lock SDST 74.50–84.86 KSU · KSU by 10.4 pts vs SDST +11.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitD. Kern · SDST
37 MIN · 24 PTSD. Lindsay · KSU
21 MIN · 2 PTSPape N'Diaye · KSU
STAT · 18 MIN · 18 PTS · 5-8 FG · 0-1 3PTIsaiah Abraham · KSU
STAT · 32 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-7 FG · 2-3 3PTBrandon Rechsteiner · KSU
STAT · 34 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-17 FG · 4-11 3PTJon Mekonnen · SDST
STAT · 31 MIN · 14 PTS · 6-11 FG · 0-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
S Dakota St vs Kansas St pick result · Nov 3, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is SDST +11.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day