Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Kansas Jayhawks
Final · ESPNU
45–89Last shot · Garrison White misses 13-foot jumper
At lock: projected MTSU 66.34–91.09 KU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 6:09 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3309040310
- Winner: Kansas (99%)
- Spread: MTSU +28.5 covers (63%)
- Total: Under 157.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)23
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MTSU 66.34–91.09 KU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseKU +13.0 off · MTSU +23.4 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to KU
- RecordKU 2-0 · MTSU 1-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward KU -28.5 / total 156.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTSU | 14 | 31 | 45 |
| KU | 36 | 53 | 89 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 7:3234–75
Davion Adkins makes layup (Trent Perry assists)
- FT2nd Half 7:0234–76
Trent Perry makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 6:3334–79
Luke Barnett makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trent Perry assists)
- FT2nd Half 6:1135–79
Landyn Colyer makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:5835–82
Luke Barnett makes 27-foot three point jumper (Davion Adkins assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:0335–85
Luke Barnett makes 26-foot three point jumper (Keanu Dawes assists)
- FT2nd Half 4:4636–85
Marcus Whitlock Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:0839–85
Jax Howard makes 24-foot three point jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:3942–85
Marcus Whitlock Jr. makes 28-foot three pointer (Jax Howard assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:1642–87
Leroy Blyden Jr. makes 17-foot step back jumpshot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:4945–87
Marcus Whitlock Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jax Howard assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:5445–89
Paul Mbiya makes 1-foot dunk
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MTSU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 O. Naveh F · #9 | 17 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
 K. Siler C · #0 | 17 | 6 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
 Q. Barnett G · #1 | 27 | 4 | 2-8 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
 M. Whitlock Jr. G · #22 | 29 | 7 | 2-8 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 J. Carter G · #2 | 32 | 7 | 3-19 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
 A. Bolden F · #4 | 13 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
 J. Hall F · #5 | 14 | 11 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
 L. Jovanovic C · #3 | 9 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 B. Davis G · #10 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 G. White G · #6 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Howard G · #8 | 5 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 L. Colyer G · #7 | 21 | 4 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
 E. Rice G · #11 | 14 | 1 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
 K. de Kovachich G · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 45 | 17-68 | 7-27 | 4-9 | 35 | 10 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MTSU | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 17-68 | 35-56 |
| FG% | 25 | 63 |
| 3PT | 7-27 | 7-19 |
| 3P% | 26 | 37 |
| FT | 4-9 | 12-22 |
| FT% | 44 | 55 |
| REB | 35 | 41 |
| OR | 18 | 9 |
| DR | 17 | 32 |
| AST | 10 | 17 |
| STL | 6 | 7 |
| BLK | 4 | 7 |
| TO | 16 | 12 |
| TTO | 3 | 0 |
| ToTO | 16 | 12 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 2 | 28 |
| FBPs | 3 | 14 |
| PIP | 16 | 48 |
| PF | 18 | 10 |
| LL | 0 | 50 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 97 |
At lock MTSU 66.34–91.09 KU · KU by 24.8 pts vs MTSU +28.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
MissO. Naveh · MTSU
17 MIN · 2 PTST. Kaufman-Renn · KU
18 MIN · 17 PTSJarred Hall · MTSU
STAT · 14 MIN · 11 PTS · 4-8 FG · 3-5 3PTChristian Reeves · KU
STAT · 11 MIN · 10 PTS · 5-5 FG · 5 REBTre White · KU
STAT · 17 MIN · 9 PTS · 3-7 FG · 2-4 3PTLuke Barnett · KU
STAT · 7 MIN · 9 PTS · 3-4 FG · 3-4 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
MTSU vs Kansas pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MTSU +28.5, with a 56% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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