Memphis Tigers at Iowa State Cyclones
Final · FS1
80–76Last shot · Tamin Lipsey misses 26-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected MEM 70.50–83.44 ISU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3374326405
- Winner: Iowa State (87%)
- Spread: MEM +14.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Under 155.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)17
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MEM 70.50–83.44 ISU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseISU +0.0 off · MEM +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to ISU
- Market priorBlended 86% toward ISU -15.5 / total 157.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEM | 40 | 40 | 80 |
| ISU | 39 | 37 | 76 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:0271–69
Jayden Reid makes layup
- FT2nd Half 2:3972–69
Jayden Reid makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:3973–69
Jayden Reid makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:2573–71
Dominykas Pleta makes layup (Jaquan Johnson assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:1075–71
Jayden Reid makes layup
- FT2nd Half 1:0075–72
Jaquan Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:0075–73
Jaquan Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3878–73
Jayden Reid makes 25-foot three point jumper
- FT2nd Half 0:3478–74
Tamin Lipsey makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2079–74
Jayden Reid makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2080–74
Jayden Reid makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:1180–76
Dominykas Pleta makes layup (Tamin Lipsey assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MEM | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 T. Weeks F · #4 | 35 | 8 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
 M. Logue F · #77 | 12 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
 R. Vavers F · #15 | 38 | 15 | 4-9 | 3-7 | 4-6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
 L. Almodovar G · #10 | 28 | 18 | 5-12 | 3-8 | 5-6 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 |
 J. Reid G · #0 | 28 | 26 | 6-11 | 2-2 | 12-14 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 J. Deng F · #7 | 6 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
 C. Williams F · #2 | 22 | 6 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 3 |
 C. Jackson Jr. G · #11 | 6 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 J. Holloway G · #1 | 18 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 B. Cummings G · #3 | 7 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 N. Popovic F · #17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 F. Smith Jr. F · #30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 W. Whorton F · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 P. Pounds G · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Thedford G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 80 | 23-55 | 9-20 | 25-33 | 38 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 26 | 29 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MEM | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 23-55 | 25-58 |
| FG% | 42 | 43 |
| 3PT | 9-20 | 4-20 |
| 3P% | 45 | 20 |
| FT | 25-33 | 22-32 |
| FT% | 76 | 69 |
| REB | 38 | 36 |
| OR | 12 | 14 |
| DR | 26 | 22 |
| AST | 11 | 13 |
| STL | 7 | 4 |
| BLK | 4 | 4 |
| TO | 13 | 11 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 13 | 11 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 12 | 14 |
| FBPs | 14 | 5 |
| PIP | 26 | 38 |
| PF | 29 | 21 |
| LL | 7 | 5 |
| LC | 12 | 12 |
| LPCT | 82 | 12 |
At lock MEM 70.50–83.44 ISU · ISU by 12.9 pts vs MEM +14.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitT. Weeks · MEM
35 MIN · 8 PTST. Singleton · ISU
28 MIN · 11 PTSJayden Reid · MEM
STAT · 28 MIN · 26 PTS · 6-11 FG · 2-2 3PTRyan Prather Jr. · ISU
STAT · 27 MIN · 19 PTS · 6-11 FG · 3-6 3PTLuke Almodovar · MEM
STAT · 28 MIN · 18 PTS · 5-12 FG · 3-8 3PTRihards Vavers · MEM
STAT · 38 MIN · 15 PTS · 4-9 FG · 3-7 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Memphis vs Iowa State pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MEM +14.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day