Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at Baylor Bears
Final · ESPN+
53–109Last shot · Kalli Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected UAPB 63.39–94.97 BAY
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3172700787
- Winner: Baylor (100%)
- Spread: UAPB +36.5 covers (67%)
- Total: Under 158.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)24
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
UAPB 63.39–94.97 BAY · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseBAY +12.2 off · UAPB +9.0 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to BAY
- RecordBAY 2-0 · UAPB 0-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward BAY -38.5 / total 163.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UAPB | 13 | 40 | 53 |
| BAY | 58 | 51 | 109 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:4444–98
David Giddens makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Tatum assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:2744–100
Isaac Celiscar makes layup (Brett Decker Jr. assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:1447–100
David Giddens makes 25-foot three point jumper (Creed Williamson assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 2:5347–102
Elijah Williams makes 1-foot dunk
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 2:3347–104
Elijah Williams makes 2-foot dunk (Brett Decker Jr. assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:5947–106
Elijah Williams makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:4949–106
David Giddens makes 12-foot jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:2549–108
Mayo Soyoye makes 6-foot jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:1051–108
Kalli Johnson makes 9-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 0:1551–109
Maikcol Perez makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0752–109
Kalli Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0753–109
Kalli Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UAPB | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Nyakundi F · #4 | 9 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 M. Rich F · #9 | 29 | 13 | 5-13 | 0-3 | 3-3 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
 H. Pickett G · #23 | 18 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
 J. Tatum G · #1 | 34 | 11 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 3-7 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
 B. Johnson G · #0 | 14 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 CJ Smith F · #5 | 21 | 6 | 2-7 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 C. Williamson F · #22 | 31 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
 K. Johnson G · #9 | 10 | 7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 J. Hamilton-Brown G · #8 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 J. Hayes G · #3 | 17 | 4 | 1-6 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 |
 D. Giddens G · #7 | 11 | 9 | 3-6 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 D. Capriotti G · #6 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 M. Williams F · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Dixon G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 E. Hernandez G · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 L. Taylor G · #44 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 53 | 18-51 | 5-20 | 12-19 | 32 | 7 | 34 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 30 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UAPB | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 18-51 | 35-72 |
| FG% | 35 | 49 |
| 3PT | 5-20 | 5-29 |
| 3P% | 25 | 17 |
| FT | 12-19 | 34-42 |
| FT% | 63 | 81 |
| REB | 32 | 44 |
| OR | 11 | 20 |
| DR | 21 | 24 |
| AST | 7 | 21 |
| STL | 3 | 21 |
| BLK | 4 | 7 |
| TO | 34 | 9 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 34 | 9 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 7 | 51 |
| FBPs | 5 | 20 |
| PIP | 20 | 58 |
| PF | 30 | 20 |
| LL | 0 | 59 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 94 |
At lock UAPB 63.39–94.97 BAY · BAY by 31.6 pts vs UAPB +36.5 · 58% is the confidence saved at lock
MissJ. Nyakundi · UAPB
9 MIN · 0-1 FGE. Williams · BAY
18 MIN · 12 PTSIsaac Williams IV · BAY
STAT · 25 MIN · 26 PTS · 7-13 FG · 1-5 3PTDylan Mingo · BAY
STAT · 19 MIN · 15 PTS · 7-9 FG · 1-4 FTMacaleab Rich · UAPB
STAT · 29 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-13 FG · 0-3 3PTKayden Mingo · BAY
STAT · 16 MIN · 13 PTS · 3-7 FG · 1-4 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
AR-Pine Bluff vs Baylor pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UAPB +36.5, with a 58% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day