Northwestern State Demons at Baylor Bears
Final · ESPN+
65–87Last shot · Jayden Nesbitt misses tip in layup
At lock: projected NWST 61.04–86.88 BAY
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3155923168
- Winner: Baylor (99%)
- Spread: NWST +29.5 covers (63%)
- Total: Under 148.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)4
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
NWST 61.04–86.88 BAY · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseBAY +0.0 off · NWST +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to BAY
- Market priorBlended 86% toward BAY -31.5 / total 151.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NWST | 32 | 33 | 65 |
| BAY | 50 | 37 | 87 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 5:2755–77
Caden Powell makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 5:0056–77
Nathan Ojukwu makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:4456–80
Brett Decker Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dylan Mingo assists)
- FT2nd Half 4:3057–80
Isaiah Vick makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:3058–80
Isaiah Vick makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:2760–80
Jayden Nesbitt makes 1-foot jumper (Arne Osojnik assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:2563–80
Nathan Ojukwu makes 24-foot three point jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:0863–83
Kayden Mingo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaac Williams IV assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:2563–84
Kayden Mingo makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2563–85
Kayden Mingo makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:5865–85
Cam Kelly makes 5-foot jumper
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:4765–87
Maikcol Perez makes layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| NWST | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 I. Vick F · #1 | 27 | 12 | 3-11 | 0-3 | 6-6 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
 K. Turner F · #23 | 10 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
 N. Ojukwu F · #13 | 24 | 13 | 4-8 | 1-4 | 4-7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
 An. Almuttar G · #5 | 28 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 K. Simpson G · #4 | 29 | 17 | 6-13 | 1-4 | 4-7 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 J. Nesbitt F · #15 | 16 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
 C. Kelly F · #2 | 6 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 A. Osojnik F · #3 | 22 | 4 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
 D. Thomas F · #8 | 12 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
 Ar. Almuttar G · #22 | 6 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 B. Remo G · #12 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 D. Brown G · #11 | 19 | 8 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 CJ Larry G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 I. Miles G · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 65 | 22-59 | 5-23 | 16-24 | 35 | 10 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 26 | 25 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NWST | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 22-59 | 31-65 |
| FG% | 37 | 48 |
| 3PT | 5-23 | 9-29 |
| 3P% | 22 | 31 |
| FT | 16-24 | 16-29 |
| FT% | 67 | 55 |
| REB | 35 | 49 |
| OR | 9 | 17 |
| DR | 26 | 32 |
| AST | 10 | 17 |
| STL | 7 | 9 |
| BLK | 4 | 5 |
| TO | 16 | 16 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 16 | 16 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 18 | 19 |
| FBPs | 8 | 10 |
| PIP | 30 | 38 |
| PF | 25 | 21 |
| LL | 0 | 24 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 99 |
At lock NWST 61.04–86.88 BAY · BAY by 25.8 pts vs NWST +29.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
HitI. Vick · NWST
27 MIN · 12 PTSE. Williams · BAY
20 MIN · 11 PTSKai Simpson · NWST
STAT · 29 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-13 FG · 1-4 3PTBrett Decker Jr. · BAY
STAT · 24 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-11 FG · 5-9 3PTKayden Mingo · BAY
STAT · 28 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-14 FG · 2-7 3PTDylan Mingo · BAY
STAT · 23 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-11 FG · 0-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
N'Western St vs Baylor pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is NWST +29.5, with a 56% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day