Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Arizona Wildcats
Final · ESPN+
59–90Last shot · Ugnius Jarusevicius makes layup (Bryce James assists)
At lock: projected NAU 63.16–94.44 ARIZ
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 10, 2:19 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3256735977
- Winner: Arizona (100%)
- Spread: NAU +35.5 covers (65%)
- Total: Over 156.5 (56%)
- Score error (both teams)8
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
NAU 63.16–94.44 ARIZ · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseARIZ +11.5 off · NAU +6.5 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to ARIZ
- RecordARIZ 2-1 · NAU 0-3
- Market priorBlended 84% toward ARIZ -35.5 / total 156.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAU | 22 | 37 | 59 |
| ARIZ | 46 | 44 | 90 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 7:0547–79
Noah George makes free throw 1 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 6:2447–81
Maksim Brnovic makes 1-foot dunk (JJ Mandaquit assists)
- FT2nd Half 5:1248–81
Max Majerle makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 5:1249–81
Max Majerle makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:0149–83
Caleb Holt makes 15-foot pullup jump shot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:3752–83
Cade Bennett makes 23-foot three point jumper (Chris Komin assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:1352–86
Caleb Holt makes 24-foot three point jumper (Evan Otten assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:4855–86
Ryan Abelman makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chris Komin assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:5557–86
Tamiel Green makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:3357–88
Caleb Holt makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Evan Otten assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:4559–88
Chris Komin makes 17-foot pullup jump shot
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:3659–90
Ugnius Jarusevicius makes layup (Bryce James assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| NAU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 L. Toukam F · #1 | 28 | 6 | 3-8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
 D. Anderson F · #4 | 20 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 C. Komin G · #2 | 36 | 17 | 6-15 | 1-3 | 4-5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 M. Majerle G · #7 | 32 | 5 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 R. Abelman G · #11 | 37 | 14 | 5-9 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
 Z. Tanner F · #33 | 10 | 6 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 T. Green F · #6 | 10 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
 L. Wieskamp F · #3 | 7 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 N. Keutcha C · #31 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Mautz G · #35 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 N. George G · #23 | 7 | 4 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 JT Amundsen G · #30 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 C. Bennett G · #22 | 11 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 B. Peterson G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Dorsey G · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 59 | 21-51 | 9-26 | 8-10 | 24 | 9 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 15 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NAU | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 21-51 | 37-60 |
| FG% | 41 | 62 |
| 3PT | 9-26 | 8-25 |
| 3P% | 35 | 32 |
| FT | 8-10 | 8-12 |
| FT% | 80 | 67 |
| REB | 24 | 31 |
| OR | 6 | 8 |
| DR | 18 | 23 |
| AST | 9 | 26 |
| STL | 1 | 11 |
| BLK | 2 | 2 |
| TO | 15 | 6 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 15 | 6 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 3 | 21 |
| FBPs | 0 | 28 |
| PIP | 20 | 52 |
| PF | 15 | 12 |
| LL | 2 | 34 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 2 | 97 |
At lock NAU 63.16–94.44 ARIZ · ARIZ by 31.3 pts vs NAU +35.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock
HitL. Toukam · NAU
28 MIN · 6 PTSI. Kharchenkov · ARIZ
30 MIN · 20 PTSChris Komin · NAU
STAT · 36 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-15 FG · 1-3 3PTCaleb Holt · ARIZ
STAT · 27 MIN · 17 PTS · 8-15 FG · 1-7 3PTMotiejus Krivas · ARIZ
STAT · 26 MIN · 16 PTS · 7-9 FG · 0-1 3PTRyan Abelman · NAU
STAT · 37 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-9 FG · 4-8 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
N Arizona vs Arizona pick result · Nov 10, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is NAU +35.5, with a 57% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day