Cal Poly Mustangs at Arizona Wildcats
Final · truTV
84–104Last shot · Jason Scott makes layup (Troy Plumtree assists)
At lock: projected CP 73.77–99.77 ARIZ
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 6:30 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3375017953
- Winner: Arizona (99%)
- Spread: CP +30.5 covers (66%)
- Total: Over 173.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)14
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
CP 73.77–99.77 ARIZ · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseARIZ +18.7 off · CP +18.3 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to ARIZ
- RecordARIZ 1-1 · CP 1-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward ARIZ -31.5 / total 174.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CP | 41 | 43 | 84 |
| ARIZ | 59 | 45 | 104 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:1471–96
Cayden Ward makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:5971–98
Caleb Holt makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:0971–100
Maksim Brnovic makes layup
- FT2nd Half 2:5972–100
Cayden Ward makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:5973–100
Cayden Ward makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:2776–100
Hamad Mousa makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cayden Ward assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:4879–100
Jason Scott makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cayden Ward assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:2179–102
Bryce James makes 16-foot pullup jump shot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:4582–102
Jason Scott makes 23-foot three point jumper (Braden Freeman assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:4482–103
Addison Arnold makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4482–104
Addison Arnold makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:2684–104
Jason Scott makes layup (Troy Plumtree assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| CP | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Goode F · #11 | 18 | 5 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
 J. Esso Essis G · #1 | 16 | 10 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
 C. Ward G · #14 | 26 | 9 | 3-8 | 0-4 | 3-5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
 G. Vasilic G · #5 | 26 | 0 | 0-6 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 H. Mousa G · #10 | 31 | 30 | 10-14 | 8-10 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
 A. Price Jr. PF · #15 | 12 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
 T. Plumtree F · #13 | 16 | 8 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 A. Assran F · #7 | 12 | 3 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
 B. Freeman F · #2 | 14 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 J. Mosley PG · #8 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 J. Davis G · #3 | 9 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 J. Scott G · #00 | 17 | 17 | 6-8 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 C. Wyatt G · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Moore G · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Elliott G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 84 | 29-66 | 16-37 | 10-21 | 30 | 15 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 13 | 17 | 27 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CP | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 29-66 | 36-66 |
| FG% | 44 | 55 |
| 3PT | 16-37 | 4-14 |
| 3P% | 43 | 29 |
| FT | 10-21 | 28-36 |
| FT% | 48 | 78 |
| REB | 30 | 44 |
| OR | 13 | 15 |
| DR | 17 | 29 |
| AST | 15 | 22 |
| STL | 6 | 14 |
| BLK | 0 | 3 |
| TO | 19 | 13 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 19 | 13 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 13 | 25 |
| FBPs | 15 | 17 |
| PIP | 26 | 56 |
| PF | 27 | 18 |
| LL | 2 | 29 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 1 | 97 |
At lock CP 73.77–99.77 ARIZ · ARIZ by 26.0 pts vs CP +30.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock
HitA. Goode · CP
18 MIN · 5 PTSI. Kharchenkov · ARIZ
29 MIN · 16 PTSHamad Mousa · CP
STAT · 31 MIN · 30 PTS · 10-14 FG · 8-10 3PTMotiejus Krivas · ARIZ
STAT · 23 MIN · 30 PTS · 10-13 FG · 10-12 FTCaleb Holt · ARIZ
STAT · 23 MIN · 21 PTS · 8-13 FG · 5-6 FTJason Scott · CP
STAT · 17 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-8 FG · 5-6 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Cal Poly vs Arizona pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CP +30.5, with a 57% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day