Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Final · ACCNX


51–89
Last shot · Jalik Nicholls misses free throw 2 of 2


At lock: projected SUU 71.29–85.94 WAKE
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 7:29 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3459053143
- Winner: Wake Forest (90%)
- Spread: SUU +19.5 covers (66%)
- Total: Over 155.5 (60%)
- Score error (both teams)23
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
SUU 71.29–85.94 WAKE · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseWAKE +2.2 off · SUU +9.9 off, shrunk 33%
- Home field+3.4 pts to WAKE
- RecordWAKE 4-1 · SUU 3-3
- Market priorBlended 83% toward WAKE -18.5 / total 154.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SUU | 28 | 23 | 51 |
| WAKE | 46 | 43 | 89 |
Scoring plays
FT2nd Half 4:0642–78DJ Smith makes free throw 2 of 2
LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:3542–80Justin Ray makes driving layup
FT2nd Half 3:2143–80Mikhail Protsenko makes free throw 1 of 2
FT2nd Half 3:2144–80Mikhail Protsenko makes free throw 2 of 2
JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:0944–82Lukas Bojovic makes 4-foot floating jump shot
LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:5446–82Jalik Nicholls makes layup (DJ Smith assists)
JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:1449–82Jalik Nicholls makes 27-foot three point jumper
JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:0149–84Lukas Bojovic makes 6-foot turnaround jump shot
FT2nd Half 1:5050–84Anthony Breland makes free throw 1 of 2
FT2nd Half 1:5051–84Anthony Breland makes free throw 2 of 2
DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:3651–86Ring Nyeri makes 4-foot alley oop dunk (Lukas Bojovic assists)
JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3451–89Vincent Ricchiuti makes 24-foot three point jumper (Lukas Bojovic assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| SUU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() C. Barclay F · #24 | 20 | 3 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
![]() JaJ. Nicholls F · #7 | 26 | 12 | 5-16 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
![]() J. Feroah F · #35 | 29 | 6 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
![]() C. Degraffenried G · #33 | 15 | 7 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
![]() D. Sanders G · #5 | 14 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
![]() D. Smith F · #6 | 4 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Jal. Nicholls F · #1 | 3 | 5 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() J. Riak F · #11 | 17 | 3 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
![]() M. Protsenko C · #32 | 9 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
![]() R. Davis G · #3 | 22 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
![]() B. Johnson G · #0 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Z. Kidd G · #4 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() J. Brown G · #10 | 9 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
![]() D. Hall G · #2 | 7 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() A. Breland G · #22 | 20 | 7 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 51 | 16-52 | 4-17 | 15-27 | 27 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 14 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SUU | WAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 16-52 | 34-63 |
| FG% | 31 | 54 |
| 3PT | 4-17 | 7-21 |
| 3P% | 24 | 33 |
| FT | 15-27 | 14-21 |
| FT% | 56 | 67 |
| REB | 27 | 44 |
| OR | 13 | 16 |
| DR | 14 | 28 |
| AST | 9 | 17 |
| STL | 4 | 10 |
| BLK | 2 | 5 |
| TO | 12 | 11 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 12 | 11 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 12 | 23 |
| FBPs | 2 | 17 |
| PIP | 20 | 46 |
| PF | 18 | 19 |
| LL | 2 | 38 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 1 | 95 |
At lock SUU 71.29–85.94 WAKE · WAKE by 14.6 pts vs SUU +19.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock · Play of the Day: SUU +19.5 locked at 66% when posted
MissC. Barclay · SUU
20 MIN · 3 PTSGav. Placide · WAKE
27 MIN · 16 PTSKevair Kennedy · WAKE
STAT · 32 MIN · 23 PTS · 7-11 FG · 3-4 3PTIsaac Carr · WAKE
STAT · 28 MIN · 18 PTS · 8-11 FG · 1-4 3PTJaJuan Nicholls · SUU
STAT · 26 MIN · 12 PTS · 5-16 FG · 0-1 3PTGallagher Placide · WAKE
STAT · 17 MIN · 9 PTS · 3-4 FG · 1-1 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Southern Utah vs Wake Forest pick result · Nov 14, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is SUU +19.5, with a 59% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day















