NCAABFinalLJVM Coliseum

Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Final · ACCNX

Southern Utah51–89Wake Forest
Southern UtahWake Forest
Final

Last shot · Jalik Nicholls misses free throw 2 of 2

Southern Utah Thunderbirds
3-3 · L3
535 PF · 437 PA
51
Final
Final
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
4-1 · W3
394 PF · 302 PA
89
SUU 10%WAKE 90%

At lock: projected SUU 71.29–85.94 WAKE

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 7:29 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3459053143

Winner called · off by 23
Most typical sim
SUU 71 – WAKE 86
Final
SUU 51 – WAKE 89
  • Winner: Wake Forest (90%)
  • Spread: SUU +19.5 covers (66%)
  • Total: Over 155.5 (60%)
  • Score error (both teams)23

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

SUU 71.29–85.94 WAKE · Medium confidence

Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

  • Attack / defense
    WAKE +2.2 off · SUU +9.9 off, shrunk 33%
  • Home field
    +3.4 pts to WAKE
  • Record
    WAKE 4-1 · SUU 3-3
  • Market prior
    Blended 83% toward WAKE -18.5 / total 154.5
Full write-up of the model

Line score

Q1Q2T
SUU282351
WAKE464389

Scoring plays

  • FT2nd Half 4:0642–78

    DJ Smith makes free throw 2 of 2

  • LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:3542–80

    Justin Ray makes driving layup

  • FT2nd Half 3:2143–80

    Mikhail Protsenko makes free throw 1 of 2

  • FT2nd Half 3:2144–80

    Mikhail Protsenko makes free throw 2 of 2

  • JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:0944–82

    Lukas Bojovic makes 4-foot floating jump shot

  • LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:5446–82

    Jalik Nicholls makes layup (DJ Smith assists)

  • JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:1449–82

    Jalik Nicholls makes 27-foot three point jumper

  • JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:0149–84

    Lukas Bojovic makes 6-foot turnaround jump shot

  • FT2nd Half 1:5050–84

    Anthony Breland makes free throw 1 of 2

  • FT2nd Half 1:5051–84

    Anthony Breland makes free throw 2 of 2

  • DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:3651–86

    Ring Nyeri makes 4-foot alley oop dunk (Lukas Bojovic assists)

  • JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3451–89

    Vincent Ricchiuti makes 24-foot three point jumper (Lukas Bojovic assists)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

SUUMINPTSFG3PTFTREBASTTOSTLBLKOREBDREBPF
C. Barclay
F · #24
2030-20-23-431010304
JaJ. Nicholls
F · #7
26125-160-12-4100302372
J. Feroah
F · #35
2962-60-22-200110001
C. Degraffenried
G · #33
1572-32-21-212000103
D. Sanders
G · #5
1421-20-00-020110021
D. Smith
F · #6
420-00-02-401000000
Jal. Nicholls
F · #1
352-21-10-400000000
J. Riak
F · #11
1731-40-11-211000011
M. Protsenko
C · #32
920-00-02-310210011
R. Davis
G · #3
2221-30-10-004300002
B. Johnson
G · #0
300-00-00-000000000
Z. Kidd
G · #4
200-00-00-000000000
J. Brown
G · #10
900-30-10-000000003
D. Hall
G · #2
700-30-20-000000000
A. Breland
G · #22
2072-81-42-210100100
Team5116-524-1715-272791242131418

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

SUUWAKE
FG16-5234-63
FG%3154
3PT4-177-21
3P%2433
FT15-2714-21
FT%5667
REB2744
OR1316
DR1428
AST917
STL410
BLK25
TO1211
TTO10
ToTO1211
TECH00
TECH00
FLAG00
PTS OFF TO1223
FBPs217
PIP2046
PF1819
LL238
LC22
LPCT195
Computer pick · SpreadStrong play
SUU +19.5
59%

At lock SUU 71.29–85.94 WAKE · WAKE by 14.6 pts vs SUU +19.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock · Play of the Day: SUU +19.5 locked at 66% when posted

Miss
Players
  • C. Barclay · SUU

    20 MIN · 3 PTS
  • Gav. Placide · WAKE

    27 MIN · 16 PTS
  • Kevair Kennedy · WAKE

    STAT · 32 MIN · 23 PTS · 7-11 FG · 3-4 3PT
  • Isaac Carr · WAKE

    STAT · 28 MIN · 18 PTS · 8-11 FG · 1-4 3PT
  • JaJuan Nicholls · SUU

    STAT · 26 MIN · 12 PTS · 5-16 FG · 0-1 3PT
  • Gallagher Placide · WAKE

    STAT · 17 MIN · 9 PTS · 3-4 FG · 1-1 3PT

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Southern Utah vs Wake Forest pick result · Nov 14, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is SUU +19.5, with a 59% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day

Overline Sports

Projections blend power-index ratings with DraftKings lines. Every game carries a computer pick and a tagged DK prop; closed games are graded against those pre-game leans. Statistical estimates, not betting advice. Live scores, clocks, and team pages from ESPN.

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