Central Connecticut Blue Devils at Syracuse Orange
Final · ACCNX
49–102Last shot · Brayden Jackson misses 26-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected CCSU 56.99–77.98 SYR
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 2:17 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1394964721
- Winner: Syracuse (97%)
- Spread: CCSU +23.5 covers (59%)
- Total: Under 135.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)32
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
CCSU 56.99–77.98 SYR · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseSYR +9.6 off · CCSU +15.1 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to SYR
- RecordSYR 2-0 · CCSU 0-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward SYR -23.5 / total 134.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CCSU | 23 | 26 | 49 |
| SYR | 47 | 55 | 102 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 4:0845–88
James Jones makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:5045–89
Garwey Dual makes free throw 1 of 1
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:4845–92
Garwey Dual makes 28-foot three point jumper (Francis Folefac assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:1845–94
Francis Folefac makes 8-foot jumper (Ryan Moesch assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:5747–94
Jhace Johnson makes 18-foot jumper (Ashton Reynolds assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:4447–96
Garwey Dual makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:2749–96
Jayden Mott makes layup (Brayden Jackson assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:0549–97
Tasman Goodrick makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:0549–98
Tasman Goodrick makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:0749–100
Tasman Goodrick makes layup (Garwey Dual assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:2049–101
Ryan Moesch makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2049–102
Ryan Moesch makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| CCSU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 R. Tibby F · #23 | 5 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 J. Mott F · #11 | 23 | 6 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
 J. Johnson G · #2 | 30 | 8 | 3-10 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 R. Laurent G · #1 | 30 | 17 | 6-14 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 J. Jones G · #24 | 30 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
 J. Ervin F · #14 | 6 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
 B. Jackson F · #7 | 17 | 5 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 M. Goodwin G · #6 | 13 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 A. Reynolds G · #13 | 28 | 9 | 4-9 | 0-3 | 1-3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 E. Parker G · #0 | 10 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
 R. Jones G · #3 | 8 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 C. Gretz F · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Langdon F · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. James F · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Smith G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 V. Payne Jr. G · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 49 | 18-53 | 3-18 | 10-16 | 20 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 19 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CCSU | SYR | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 18-53 | 38-59 |
| FG% | 34 | 64 |
| 3PT | 3-18 | 9-21 |
| 3P% | 17 | 43 |
| FT | 10-16 | 17-24 |
| FT% | 63 | 71 |
| REB | 20 | 45 |
| OR | 5 | 11 |
| DR | 15 | 34 |
| AST | 6 | 20 |
| STL | 3 | 9 |
| BLK | 1 | 3 |
| TO | 11 | 8 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 11 | 8 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 3 | 14 |
| FBPs | 3 | 14 |
| PIP | 24 | 54 |
| PF | 19 | 15 |
| LL | 0 | 53 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 99 |
At lock CCSU 56.99–77.98 SYR · SYR by 21.0 pts vs CCSU +23.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
MissR. Tibby · CCSU
5 MIN · 0-2 FGM. Morano · SYR
22 MIN · 16 PTSGavin Doty · SYR
STAT · 26 MIN · 18 PTS · 7-9 FG · 3-5 3PTRaphel Laurent · CCSU
STAT · 30 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-14 FG · 2-3 3PTLuke Wilson · SYR
STAT · 22 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-6 FG · 4-6 FTKiyan Anthony · SYR
STAT · 18 MIN · 14 PTS · 6-10 FG · 1-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
C Connecticut vs Syracuse pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CCSU +23.5, with a 55% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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