Troy Trojans at Florida State Seminoles
Final · ACCNX
68–91Last shot · Jacoi Hutchinson misses 17-foot turnaround jump shot
At lock: projected TROY 69.59–90.16 FSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 4:55 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1399434412
- Winner: Florida St (96%)
- Spread: TROY +22.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Over 159.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)3
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
TROY 69.59–90.16 FSU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseFSU +22.3 off · TROY +13.2 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to FSU
- RecordFSU 2-0 · TROY 0-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward FSU -22.5 / total 158.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TROY | 26 | 42 | 68 |
| FSU | 37 | 54 | 91 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 3:5364–80
Brandon Bass Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:5364–81
Brandon Bass Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:3164–82
Sebastian Rancik makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:3164–83
Sebastian Rancik makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:1164–84
Sebastian Rancik makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:1164–85
Sebastian Rancik makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:4264–86
Marcis Ponder makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:4264–87
Marcis Ponder makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:2766–87
Evan Griffin makes layup (Jacoi Hutchinson assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:0166–89
Kam Taylor makes 7-foot jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:3468–89
Jacoi Hutchinson makes 12-foot pullup jump shot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3768–91
Martay Barnes makes 10-foot floating jump shot
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| TROY | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 M. Ikegwuruka F · #7 | 21 | 4 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 C. Diggs F · #11 | 24 | 11 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
 R. Davis Jr. G · #4 | 34 | 9 | 3-10 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 D. Oday G · #3 | 18 | 7 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 3-5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
 J. Hutchinson G · #1 | 27 | 8 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
 E. Griffin F · #25 | 4 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 K. Kiel F · #0 | 15 | 7 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 S. Walters F · #24 | 19 | 11 | 3-7 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
 T. Wadsworth G · #23 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 R. Valakou G · #6 | 10 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 W. Piggott Jr. G · #5 | 6 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
 C. Pacheco G · #2 | 18 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 A. Pacheco C · #27 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 H. Awata G · #30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Kontuniemi G · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 68 | 23-55 | 9-26 | 13-21 | 21 | 15 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 28 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| TROY | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 23-55 | 25-58 |
| FG% | 42 | 43 |
| 3PT | 9-26 | 7-28 |
| 3P% | 35 | 25 |
| FT | 13-21 | 34-39 |
| FT% | 62 | 87 |
| REB | 21 | 46 |
| OR | 5 | 18 |
| DR | 16 | 28 |
| AST | 15 | 17 |
| STL | 7 | 5 |
| BLK | 3 | 1 |
| TO | 11 | 12 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 11 | 12 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 13 | 18 |
| FBPs | 4 | 7 |
| PIP | 24 | 26 |
| PF | 28 | 18 |
| LL | 0 | 23 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 99 |
At lock TROY 69.59–90.16 FSU · FSU by 20.6 pts vs TROY +22.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissM. Ikegwuruka · TROY
21 MIN · 4 PTSS. Rancik · FSU
31 MIN · 18 PTSShon Abaev · FSU
STAT · 31 MIN · 20 PTS · 6-14 FG · 2-6 3PTKam Taylor · FSU
STAT · 25 MIN · 15 PTS · 3-6 FG · 1-3 3PTCaden Diggs · TROY
STAT · 24 MIN · 11 PTS · 4-10 FG · 1-3 3PTSam Walters · TROY
STAT · 19 MIN · 11 PTS · 3-7 FG · 3-7 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Troy vs Florida St pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is TROY +22.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day