SIU Edwardsville Cougars at Duke Blue Devils
Final · CW
47–90Last shot · Kain McCaskill misses 24-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected SIUE 55.64–93.35 DUKE
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 12, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2063374810
- Winner: Duke (100%)
- Spread: SIUE +44.5 covers (73%)
- Total: Over 148.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)12
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
SIUE 55.64–93.35 DUKE · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseDUKE +6.8 off · SIUE -0.5 off, shrunk 33%
- Home field+3.4 pts to DUKE
- RecordDUKE 3-1 · SIUE 2-3
- Market priorBlended 83% toward DUKE -42.5 / total 148.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SIUE | 20 | 27 | 47 |
| DUKE | 43 | 47 | 90 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 8:1843–73
Cameron Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Patrick Ngongba II assists)
- FT2nd Half 7:4843–74
Cameron Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 6:2543–76
Dame Sarr makes layup
- FT2nd Half 6:2543–77
Dame Sarr makes free throw 1 of 1
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 5:5043–79
Patrick Ngongba II makes 3-foot dunk
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:4543–81
Cayden Boozer makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:0043–83
Maxime Meyer makes layup (John Blackwell assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:1845–83
Dehrio McCaskill makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:5545–86
Cayden Boozer makes 23-foot three point jumper (Maxime Meyer assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 2:2545–88
Maxime Meyer makes 4-foot alley oop dunk (Deron Rippey Jr. assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:3047–88
Corentin Efono makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:1347–90
Jacob Theodosiou makes driving layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| SIUE | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 D. Wilson F · #0 | 9 | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 D. Baker F · #4 | 14 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
 D. McCaskill G · #11 | 21 | 3 | 1-9 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
 G. Cobb G · #2 | 27 | 9 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 3-5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 J. Pickett G · #1 | 23 | 8 | 3-10 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 B. Miller F · #23 | 29 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
 B. Sohaib F · #15 | 8 | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 I. Baganc F · #20 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 G. Liberis F · #21 | 14 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
 J. Martin C · #25 | 6 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 J. Riley G · #55 | 10 | 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 K. McCaskill G · #13 | 6 | 0 | 0-7 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 C. Efono G · #7 | 15 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
 H. Alexander G · #5 | 15 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 T. King G · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 47 | 17-56 | 3-22 | 10-16 | 33 | 4 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 24 | 22 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SIUE | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 17-56 | 30-66 |
| FG% | 30 | 45 |
| 3PT | 3-22 | 9-29 |
| 3P% | 14 | 31 |
| FT | 10-16 | 21-29 |
| FT% | 63 | 72 |
| REB | 33 | 51 |
| OR | 9 | 18 |
| DR | 24 | 33 |
| AST | 4 | 19 |
| STL | 8 | 11 |
| BLK | 3 | 8 |
| TO | 19 | 9 |
| TTO | 3 | 0 |
| ToTO | 19 | 9 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 8 | 20 |
| FBPs | 8 | 19 |
| PIP | 24 | 42 |
| PF | 22 | 17 |
| LL | 0 | 43 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 96 |
At lock SIUE 55.64–93.35 DUKE · DUKE by 37.7 pts vs SIUE +44.5 · 61% is the confidence saved at lock
HitD. Wilson · SIUE
9 MIN · 3 PTSD. Sarr · DUKE
23 MIN · 12 PTSPatrick Ngongba II · DUKE
STAT · 21 MIN · 13 PTS · 4-6 FG · 5-6 FTCaleb Foster · DUKE
STAT · 18 MIN · 12 PTS · 4-6 FG · 3-5 3PTJoaquim Boumtje Boumtje · DUKE
STAT · 22 MIN · 11 PTS · 5-8 FG · 1-2 3PTCayden Boozer · DUKE
STAT · 22 MIN · 11 PTS · 3-7 FG · 1-3 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
SIUE vs Duke pick result · Nov 13, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is SIUE +44.5, with a 61% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day