Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Duke Blue Devils
Final · ACC Network
52–113Last shot · Q Williams IV makes driving layup
At lock: projected CCU 57.44–92.42 DUKE
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 6:07 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1962709096
- Winner: Duke (100%)
- Spread: CCU +40.5 covers (69%)
- Total: Over 149.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)26
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
CCU 57.44–92.42 DUKE · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseDUKE +20.0 off · CCU +17.9 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to DUKE
- RecordDUKE 2-0 · CCU 0-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward DUKE -40.5 / total 149.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CCU | 18 | 34 | 52 |
| DUKE | 54 | 59 | 113 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:4445–102
Ashton Hardaway makes 23-foot three point jumper
- FT2nd Half 4:0346–102
Q Williams IV makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:2946–105
Bryson Howard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cameron Williams assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:0847–105
Fletcher Bigham makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:0848–105
Fletcher Bigham makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:5048–107
Bryson Howard makes layup (Maxime Meyer assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:5048–108
Bryson Howard makes free throw 1 of 1
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:0950–108
Trey Perry makes layup (Ashton Hardaway assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:4950–111
Deron Rippey Jr. makes 23-foot three pointer
- FT2nd Half 1:1450–112
Bryson Howard makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:1450–113
Bryson Howard makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:2852–113
Q Williams IV makes driving layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| CCU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 D. Green F · #15 | 10 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
 A. Hardaway F · #7 | 14 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 T. Perry G · #0 | 24 | 14 | 5-15 | 0-4 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
 T. Thompson G · #1 | 23 | 7 | 2-10 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 J. Cross G · #9 | 16 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
 F. Bigham F · #20 | 6 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Buzzard F · #11 | 10 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
 D. Fuquay F · #6 | 12 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 C. Middleton C · #10 | 17 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
 B. Sams G · #12 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Q Williams IV G · #4 | 13 | 7 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 J. Alston G · #2 | 19 | 10 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
 D. Washington III G · #5 | 18 | 2 | 1-8 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 D. Craig G · #3 | 17 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 JT Kelsheimer G · #30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 52 | 19-63 | 4-22 | 10-17 | 27 | 8 | 17 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 29 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CCU | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 19-63 | 38-62 |
| FG% | 30 | 61 |
| 3PT | 4-22 | 11-22 |
| 3P% | 18 | 50 |
| FT | 10-17 | 26-41 |
| FT% | 59 | 63 |
| REB | 27 | 53 |
| OR | 11 | 14 |
| DR | 16 | 39 |
| AST | 8 | 25 |
| STL | 10 | 12 |
| BLK | 6 | 9 |
| TO | 17 | 15 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 17 | 15 |
| TECH | 2 | 2 |
| TECH | 2 | 2 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 6 | 27 |
| FBPs | 11 | 27 |
| PIP | 26 | 52 |
| PF | 29 | 22 |
| LL | 0 | 63 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 97 |
At lock CCU 57.44–92.42 DUKE · DUKE by 35.0 pts vs CCU +40.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock
MissD. Green · CCU
10 MIN · 0-0 FGD. Sarr · DUKE
23 MIN · 12 PTSPatrick Ngongba II · DUKE
STAT · 25 MIN · 28 PTS · 10-13 FG · 2-3 3PTJohn Blackwell · DUKE
STAT · 23 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-9 FG · 2-5 3PTCaleb Foster · DUKE
STAT · 17 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-7 FG · 3-4 3PTTrey Perry · CCU
STAT · 24 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-15 FG · 0-4 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Coastal vs Duke pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CCU +40.5, with a 59% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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