Detroit Mercy Titans at Xavier Musketeers
Final · ESPN+
55–100Last shot · Tyler Owens makes 24-foot three point jumper (Keaton Aldridge Jr. assists)
At lock: projected DETM 63.96–94.18 XAV
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 10, 5:30 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1694561382
- Winner: Xavier (100%)
- Spread: DETM +32.5 covers (59%)
- Total: Under 158.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)15
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
DETM 63.96–94.18 XAV · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseXAV +12.0 off · DETM +3.0 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to XAV
- RecordXAV 3-0 · DETM 0-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward XAV -35.5 / total 155.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DETM | 20 | 35 | 55 |
| XAV | 43 | 57 | 100 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:0143–93
Kalek House makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:5146–93
Chance Houser makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordan Briggs assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:3148–93
James Martin makes layup (Elias Palsson assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:2548–94
Kalek House makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:2548–95
Kalek House makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:0448–96
Chance Westry makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:3948–97
Chance Westry makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:3948–98
Chance Westry makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:0351–98
Elias Palsson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keaton Aldridge Jr. assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:3752–98
Keaton Aldridge Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 0:1952–100
Kason Westphal makes 0-foot tip in layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:0455–100
Tyler Owens makes 24-foot three point jumper (Keaton Aldridge Jr. assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| DETM | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 L. Maiden F · #20 | 22 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 X. Istomin-Monroe C · #6 | 25 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
 A. Carter G · #7 | 11 | 0 | 0-7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
 T. Spratt G · #1 | 24 | 8 | 2-12 | 1-7 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 L. Stone G · #11 | 19 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 D. Favor F · #30 | 11 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
 V. Semerych F · #15 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 T. Owens F · #13 | 2 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 C. Houser F · #9 | 7 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 K. Aldridge Jr. G · #23 | 7 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
 J. Martin G · #10 | 8 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
 G. Grays Jr. G · #5 | 21 | 14 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 J. Briggs G · #4 | 19 | 4 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 J. Cotton G · #2 | 9 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 E. Pálsson G · #8 | 12 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Team | 55 | 19-67 | 7-28 | 10-17 | 37 | 15 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 16 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| DETM | XAV | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 19-67 | 40-76 |
| FG% | 28 | 53 |
| 3PT | 7-28 | 8-35 |
| 3P% | 25 | 23 |
| FT | 10-17 | 12-19 |
| FT% | 59 | 63 |
| REB | 37 | 52 |
| OR | 6 | 8 |
| DR | 31 | 44 |
| AST | 15 | 30 |
| STL | 7 | 15 |
| BLK | 1 | 4 |
| TO | 17 | 9 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 17 | 9 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 5 | 29 |
| FBPs | 9 | 28 |
| PIP | 16 | 60 |
| PF | 16 | 16 |
| LL | 0 | 50 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 99 |
At lock DETM 63.96–94.18 XAV · XAV by 30.2 pts vs DETM +32.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
MissL. Maiden · DETM
22 MIN · 4 PTSF. Borovicanin · XAV
19 MIN · 5 PTSMike Nwoko · XAV
STAT · 18 MIN · 17 PTS · 8-9 FG · 0-1 3PTKalek House · XAV
STAT · 16 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-8 FG · 1-2 3PTGreg Grays Jr. · DETM
STAT · 21 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-10 FG · 2-5 3PTTru Washington · XAV
STAT · 21 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-13 FG · 1-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Detroit Mercy vs Xavier pick result · Nov 10, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is DETM +32.5, with a 54% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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