Eastern Michigan Eagles at Xavier Musketeers
Final · ESPN+
53–76Last shot · Aviv Aronov misses layup
At lock: projected EMU 67.87–89.10 XAV
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 4:55 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1711339001
- Winner: Xavier (97%)
- Spread: EMU +23.5 covers (57%)
- Total: Over 156.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)28
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
EMU 67.87–89.10 XAV · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseXAV +23.4 off · EMU +12.4 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to XAV
- RecordXAV 2-0 · EMU 1-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward XAV -23.5 / total 151.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EMU | 25 | 28 | 53 |
| XAV | 34 | 42 | 76 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:1246–66
Nikos Chitikoudis makes layup
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 3:5748–66
Mohammad Habhab makes 2-foot dunk (Jabri Fitzpatrick assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 3:5248–68
Mike Nwoko makes 4-foot dunk (Kalek House assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:1948–70
Gabriel Pozzato makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:5648–72
Chance Westry makes layup (Jovan Milicevic assists)
- XP2nd Half 2:4649–72
Jabri Fitzpatrick makes free throw 1 of 2
- XP2nd Half 2:4650–72
Jabri Fitzpatrick makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:4651–72
Aviv Aronov makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:4451–74
Kalek House makes 9-foot turnaround jump shot (Chance Westry assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:1151–76
Kalek House makes driving layup
- XP2nd Half 0:4652–76
Jabri Fitzpatrick makes free throw 1 of 2
- XP2nd Half 0:4653–76
Jabri Fitzpatrick makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| EMU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 M. Habhab F · #4 | 21 | 11 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
 K. Brockhoff F · #14 | 16 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 J. Martin G · #30 | 22 | 12 | 4-7 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 J. Fitzpatrick G · #3 | 23 | 6 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
 B. Green G · #5 | 29 | 4 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
 J. Wright F · #13 | 7 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 K. Johnson F · #1 | 28 | 3 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
A A. Aronov G · #44 | 5 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
 D. Porter G · #12 | 9 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 G. Lawson II G · #0 | 17 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 E. Richards G · #2 | 23 | 13 | 4-14 | 1-6 | 4-4 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
 O. Suleiman F · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Booher G · #20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 S. Harris G · #32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 53 | 16-58 | 6-23 | 15-18 | 39 | 10 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 21 | 20 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| EMU | XAV | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 16-58 | 29-55 |
| FG% | 28 | 53 |
| 3PT | 6-23 | 3-14 |
| 3P% | 26 | 21 |
| FT | 15-18 | 15-25 |
| FT% | 83 | 60 |
| REB | 39 | 33 |
| OR | 18 | 9 |
| DR | 21 | 24 |
| AST | 10 | 15 |
| STL | 7 | 14 |
| BLK | 2 | 4 |
| TO | 22 | 12 |
| TTO | 3 | 1 |
| ToTO | 22 | 12 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 4 | 25 |
| FBPs | 2 | 8 |
| PIP | 16 | 52 |
| PF | 20 | 13 |
| LL | 7 | 25 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 30 | 68 |
At lock EMU 67.87–89.10 XAV · XAV by 21.2 pts vs EMU +23.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
HitM. Habhab · EMU
21 MIN · 11 PTSF. Borovicanin · XAV
24 MIN · 10 PTSEmanuel Richards · EMU
STAT · 23 MIN · 13 PTS · 4-14 FG · 1-6 3PTChance Westry · XAV
STAT · 21 MIN · 13 PTS · 4-7 FG · 1-1 3PTJaiden Martin · EMU
STAT · 22 MIN · 12 PTS · 4-7 FG · 4-6 3PTJovan Milicevic · XAV
STAT · 17 MIN · 9 PTS · 3-5 FG · 0-1 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
E Michigan vs Xavier pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is EMU +23.5, with a 54% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day