Maine Black Bears at Providence Friars
Final · ESPN+
56–83Last shot · Caleb Crawford misses free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected ME 61.47–86.45 PROV
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3942909423
- Winner: Providence (99%)
- Spread: ME +28.5 covers (62%)
- Total: Under 148.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)9
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
ME 61.47–86.45 PROV · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defensePROV +0.0 off · ME +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to PROV
- Market priorBlended 86% toward PROV -32.5 / total 151.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ME | 26 | 30 | 56 |
| PROV | 34 | 49 | 83 |
Scoring plays
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 4:1846–79
Javon Bardwell makes 5-foot dunk (Malik Mack assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:0448–79
Ace Flagg makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 4:0449–79
Ace Flagg makes free throw 1 of 1
- FT2nd Half 3:2250–79
Hudson Franz makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:2251–79
Hudson Franz makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:5652–79
Ayden Evans makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:5653–79
Ayden Evans makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:4253–81
Gavin Hightower makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 1:2654–81
Ayden Evans makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2655–81
Ayden Evans makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:0456–81
Caleb Crawford makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:3256–83
Elijah Saunders makes layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| ME | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 K. Gribben F · #10 | 20 | 10 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
 A. Flagg F · #11 | 26 | 7 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
 D. Lopes G · #8 | 15 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 V. Garcia Adsten G · #1 | 20 | 7 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
 D. Williams G · #2 | 28 | 4 | 2-10 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
 W. Triestman F · #15 | 9 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 W. Waddles F · #14 | 9 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 Y. Bamba F · #6 | 16 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 A. Evans F · #5 | 20 | 11 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 5-6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 H. Franz G · #23 | 23 | 13 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 6-7 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 C. Crawford G · #4 | 14 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 J. Ojuri F · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 E. Byther F · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 O. Faubert F · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Bedard G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 56 | 15-43 | 8-23 | 18-28 | 32 | 9 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 24 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ME | PROV | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 15-43 | 31-68 |
| FG% | 35 | 46 |
| 3PT | 8-23 | 10-30 |
| 3P% | 35 | 33 |
| FT | 18-28 | 11-19 |
| FT% | 64 | 58 |
| REB | 32 | 43 |
| OR | 8 | 16 |
| DR | 24 | 27 |
| AST | 9 | 18 |
| STL | 5 | 17 |
| BLK | 5 | 4 |
| TO | 23 | 8 |
| TTO | 1 | 1 |
| ToTO | 23 | 8 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 6 | 29 |
| FBPs | 3 | 21 |
| PIP | 10 | 42 |
| PF | 18 | 25 |
| LL | 3 | 33 |
| LC | 3 | 3 |
| LPCT | 3 | 93 |
At lock ME 61.47–86.45 PROV · PROV by 25.0 pts vs ME +28.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
HitK. Gribben · ME
20 MIN · 10 PTSL. Marangon · PROV
23 MIN · 7 PTSJacob Bannarbie · PROV
STAT · 25 MIN · 14 PTS · 7-7 FG · 10 REBHudson Franz · ME
STAT · 23 MIN · 13 PTS · 3-6 FG · 1-1 3PTRyan Mela · PROV
STAT · 20 MIN · 13 PTS · 4-11 FG · 0-2 3PTMalik Mack · PROV
STAT · 27 MIN · 12 PTS · 5-10 FG · 2-6 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Maine vs Providence pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is ME +28.5, with a 55% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day