South Florida Bulls at DePaul Blue Demons
Final · truTV
80–82Last shot · Chris Davis Jr. misses driving layup
At lock: projected USF 72.68–77.97 DEP
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 6:30 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 4211792612
- Winner: DePaul (67%)
- Spread: USF +6.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 149.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)11
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
USF 72.68–77.97 DEP · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseDEP +17.6 off · USF +20.4 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to DEP
- RecordDEP 2-0 · USF 1-1
- Market priorBlended 71% toward DEP -6.5 / total 149.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USF | 35 | 45 | 80 |
| DEP | 50 | 32 | 82 |
Scoring plays
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 6:5967–78
Magoon Gwath makes 1-foot dunk (Layden Blocker assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 6:4569–78
Sonny Wilson makes 6-foot floating jump shot
- FT2nd Half 6:1170–78
Sonny Wilson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 6:1171–78
Sonny Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:3774–78
Garrett Johnson makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Sonny Wilson assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:2174–79
Noah Meeusen makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:2174–80
Noah Meeusen makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:5476–80
Chris Davis Jr. makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 2:2677–80
Zayden High makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:4078–80
Sonny Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:5378–82
Layden Blocker makes 13-foot pullup jump shot
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:0680–82
Sonny Wilson makes driving layup (Garrett Johnson assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| USF | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 G. Johnson F · #9 | 33 | 26 | 8-13 | 8-13 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
 Z. High F · #1 | 24 | 11 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
 C. Davis Jr. G · #4 | 36 | 17 | 7-15 | 0-6 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
 S. Wilson G · #3 | 40 | 16 | 6-12 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
 M. James G · #0 | 31 | 2 | 0-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
J J. Feldhaus F · #20 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 T. Diawara C · #18 | 7 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 A. Shoshkikj G · #29 | 13 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
 J. Omojafo G · #8 | 14 | 4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 J. Lewis F · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 R. Goods F · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
R R. Stevenson F · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
J J. Johnson G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
D D. Moore G · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
D D. Waleskowski G · #33 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 AJ Dancler G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 80 | 28-58 | 9-26 | 15-19 | 30 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| USF | DEP | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 28-58 | 28-60 |
| FG% | 48 | 47 |
| 3PT | 9-26 | 14-32 |
| 3P% | 35 | 44 |
| FT | 15-19 | 12-17 |
| FT% | 79 | 71 |
| REB | 30 | 31 |
| OR | 9 | 9 |
| DR | 21 | 22 |
| AST | 17 | 19 |
| STL | 6 | 3 |
| BLK | 5 | 5 |
| TO | 6 | 10 |
| TTO | 0 | 2 |
| ToTO | 6 | 10 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 1 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 17 | 7 |
| FBPs | 19 | 4 |
| PIP | 38 | 28 |
| PF | 18 | 17 |
| LL | 0 | 19 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 99 |
At lock USF 72.68–77.97 DEP · DEP by 5.3 pts vs USF +6.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitG. Johnson · USF
33 MIN · 26 PTSM. Gwath · DEP
11 MIN · 7 PTSKruz McClure · DEP
STAT · 29 MIN · 18 PTS · 3-10 FG · 3-8 3PTChris Davis Jr. · USF
STAT · 36 MIN · 17 PTS · 7-15 FG · 0-6 3PTSonny Wilson · USF
STAT · 40 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-12 FG · 0-1 3PTNoah Meeusen · DEP
STAT · 36 MIN · 13 PTS · 4-9 FG · 3-7 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
South Florida vs DePaul pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is USF +6.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day