Le Moyne Dolphins at Creighton Bluejays
Final · ESPN+
55–83Last shot · Trevor Roe makes 26-foot three point jumper (Leandro Gysel assists)
At lock: projected LEM 65.05–91.62 CREI
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 6:30 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2455916090
- Winner: Creighton (99%)
- Spread: LEM +29.5 covers (60%)
- Total: Over 156.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)19
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
LEM 65.05–91.62 CREI · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseCREI +10.1 off · LEM +19.1 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to CREI
- RecordCREI 2-0 · LEM 0-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward CREI -29.5 / total 156.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LEM | 17 | 38 | 55 |
| CREI | 54 | 29 | 83 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:5344–78
Connor Johnson makes layup (Kole Williams assists)
- FT2nd Half 4:2844–79
Hudson Greer makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:5446–79
Connor Johnson makes layup
- FT2nd Half 3:3646–80
Katrelle Harmon makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:2247–80
Kole Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:2248–80
Kole Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:0648–81
Trevon Carter-Givens makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:3948–82
Katrelle Harmon makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:3948–83
Katrelle Harmon makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:2150–83
Hunter Frazier makes layup (Leandro Gysel assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:4752–83
Hunter Frazier makes layup (Trevor Roe assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:0155–83
Trevor Roe makes 26-foot three point jumper (Leandro Gysel assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| LEM | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ty Francis F · #9 | 22 | 9 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 K. Stuckey F · #12 | 12 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 T. Roe F · #5 | 37 | 12 | 4-14 | 4-12 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
 D. King G · #1 | 13 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 J. Teat G · #24 | 25 | 0 | 0-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 H. Frazier F · #23 | 10 | 6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 C. Johnson F · #15 | 11 | 7 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
 P. Hartman C · #7 | 7 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 L. Gysel G · #13 | 25 | 8 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 3-3 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
 J. Clayville G · #4 | 5 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ko. Williams G · #25 | 15 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Kh. Williams G · #2 | 18 | 7 | 2-8 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
 I. Brown F · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Schreiner F · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
I I. Brown G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Lee G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Moss G · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 55 | 17-56 | 7-31 | 14-16 | 32 | 13 | 19 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| LEM | CREI | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 17-56 | 29-70 |
| FG% | 30 | 41 |
| 3PT | 7-31 | 11-35 |
| 3P% | 23 | 31 |
| FT | 14-16 | 14-21 |
| FT% | 88 | 67 |
| REB | 32 | 52 |
| OR | 9 | 22 |
| DR | 23 | 30 |
| AST | 13 | 20 |
| STL | 10 | 11 |
| BLK | 2 | 3 |
| TO | 19 | 14 |
| TTO | 2 | 1 |
| ToTO | 19 | 14 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 24 | 27 |
| FBPs | 9 | 12 |
| PIP | 20 | 36 |
| PF | 18 | 18 |
| LL | 0 | 42 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 99 |
At lock LEM 65.05–91.62 CREI · CREI by 26.6 pts vs LEM +29.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
HitTy Francis · LEM
22 MIN · 9 PTSO. Erhunmwunse · CREI
14 MIN · 10 PTSJackson McAndrew · CREI
STAT · 23 MIN · 19 PTS · 7-10 FG · 5-8 3PTWes Enis · CREI
STAT · 24 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-19 FG · 3-14 3PTTrevor Roe · LEM
STAT · 37 MIN · 12 PTS · 4-14 FG · 4-12 3PTBJ Davis · CREI
STAT · 22 MIN · 9 PTS · 3-7 FG · 1-3 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Le Moyne vs Creighton pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is LEM +29.5, with a 55% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day