NCAABSun 2:00 PM CTFrost Bank Center

Baylor Bears at Texas Longhorns

TV · ESPN

BaylorTexas

Sun 2:00 PM CT

Lean · TotalNot a strong play

Over 158.5

-110 at lock51%

Model projects BAY 77.54 – 82.40 TEX · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.7%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

K. Mingo · BAY
Guard
D. Mingo · BAY
Guard
I. Williams IV · BAY
Guard
M. Vokietaitis · TEX
Center
A. Goosby · TEX
Guard

Projected prop · Matas Vokietaitis (TEX) 17.66 pts · 21.33 pts/game this season, × 0.83 for the projected TEX score

Line not posted yet

Baylor Bears

3-0 · W3

286 PF · 179 PA

77.54

Projected

Texas Longhorns

3-0 · W3 · computer pick

300 PF · 171 PA

82.40

BAY 34%TEX 66%

At lock: projected BAY 77.54–82.40 TEX

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

The model

How this number was built

BAY 77.54–82.40 TEX · Medium confidence

Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
TEX +19.6 vs BAY +14.7 · pred margin +6.1
Attack / defense
TEX +8.9 off · BAY +7.7 off, shrunk 27%
Home field
+3.4 pts to TEX
Record
TEX 3-0 · BAY 3-0
Market prior
Blended 69% toward TEX -5.5 / total 158.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Kayden Mingo
PTS 15.0
Dylan Mingo
REB 5.7
Isaac Williams IV
AST 5.0

Matas Vokietaitis
PTS 21.3
Matas Vokietaitis
REB 7.3
Austin Goosby
AST 4.3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	BAY	TEX
STRK	W3	W3
OPP PPG	59.7	57.0
PTS	95.3	100.0
FG%	50	58
3P%	27	42
REB	43.3	42.0
AST	18.3	17.3
BLK	5.0	4.3
STL	14.0	10.7
TTO	0.0	0.3
ToTO	11.3	9.7

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Baylor vs Texas prediction · Nov 15, 2026

The model projects Baylor 77.5, Texas 82.4. Model win probability: Texas 66%, Baylor 34%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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