Tennessee State Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers
Final · SECN+
78–83Last shot · Ty-Laur Johnson makes layup
At lock: projected TNST 65.25–90.64 TENN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 12, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3037933818
- Winner: Tennessee (99%)
- Spread: TNST +29.5 covers (65%)
- Total: Over 155.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)21
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
TNST 65.25–90.64 TENN · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseTENN +2.6 off · TNST +9.3 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to TENN
- RecordTENN 3-0 · TNST 2-2
- Market priorBlended 84% toward TENN -27.5 / total 157.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TNST | 37 | 41 | 78 |
| TENN | 42 | 41 | 83 |
Scoring plays
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:2368–77
Miles Rubin makes 3-foot dunk (Dai Dai Ames assists)
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 1:0770–77
Jayden Jones makes 0-foot tip in layup
- FT2nd Half 0:3570–78
Miles Rubin makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:3272–78
Ty-Laur Johnson makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 0:3273–78
Ty-Laur Johnson makes free throw 1 of 1
- FT2nd Half 0:2473–79
Terrence Hill Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2473–80
Terrence Hill Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1673–81
Juke Harris makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:1176–81
Ty-Laur Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ajayi Simmons assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:0776–82
Tyler Lundblade makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0776–83
Tyler Lundblade makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:0178–83
Ty-Laur Johnson makes layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| TNST | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 D. Lindsey F · #0 | 29 | 3 | 1-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
 A. Bradshaw F · #2 | 20 | 5 | 1-9 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 |
 C. Alston G · #7 | 30 | 9 | 2-10 | 0-3 | 5-7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
 A. Morris G · #1 | 24 | 9 | 4-16 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 T. Johnson G · #10 | 29 | 22 | 6-15 | 1-5 | 9-9 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
 K. Jones F · #23 | 13 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
A A. Simmons G · #24 | 16 | 7 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
D D. Vieira-Tuck G · #3 | 6 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
J J. Jones G · #20 | 26 | 13 | 5-11 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
 M. Bodenhamer G · #5 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 P. Patterson G · #4 | 5 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 J. Rivera F · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
G G. Shelton G · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
D D. Howard Jr. G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 I. Stewart G · #16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 78 | 25-78 | 8-30 | 20-24 | 45 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 24 | 21 | 26 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| TNST | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 25-78 | 23-53 |
| FG% | 32 | 43 |
| 3PT | 8-30 | 10-28 |
| 3P% | 27 | 36 |
| FT | 20-24 | 27-40 |
| FT% | 83 | 68 |
| REB | 45 | 43 |
| OR | 24 | 14 |
| DR | 21 | 29 |
| AST | 13 | 19 |
| STL | 9 | 7 |
| BLK | 4 | 4 |
| TO | 12 | 17 |
| TTO | 1 | 2 |
| ToTO | 12 | 17 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 24 | 13 |
| FBPs | 23 | 10 |
| PIP | 30 | 24 |
| PF | 26 | 24 |
| LL | 6 | 15 |
| LC | 3 | 3 |
| LPCT | 27 | 70 |
At lock TNST 65.25–90.64 TENN · TENN by 25.4 pts vs TNST +29.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock
HitD. Lindsey · TNST
29 MIN · 3 PTSD. Brown II · TENN
8 MIN · 0-0 FGTy-Laur Johnson · TNST
STAT · 29 MIN · 22 PTS · 6-15 FG · 1-5 3PTTerrence Hill Jr. · TENN
STAT · 29 MIN · 19 PTS · 5-11 FG · 4-8 3PTJalen Haralson · TENN
STAT · 22 MIN · 15 PTS · 4-8 FG · 7-10 FTTyler Lundblade · TENN
STAT · 28 MIN · 14 PTS · 2-9 FG · 1-7 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Tennessee St vs Tennessee pick result · Nov 13, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is TNST +29.5, with a 57% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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