Jackson State Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs
Final · SECN+
57–98Last shot · Blake Nettles makes layup
At lock: projected JKST 69.71–91.45 MSST
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 9, 9:01 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1160678098
- Winner: Mississippi St (97%)
- Spread: JKST +23.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Over 160.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)19
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
JKST 69.71–91.45 MSST · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseMSST +11.7 off · JKST +14.1 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to MSST
- RecordMSST 3-0 · JKST 1-2
- Market priorBlended 84% toward MSST -24.5 / total 154.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| JKST | 29 | 28 | 57 |
| MSST | 51 | 47 | 98 |
Scoring plays
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 6:1748–87
Jalyn Collingwood makes 3-foot dunk (Josh Hubbard assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:4251–87
Tamarion Hoover makes 23-foot three point jumper (Chip Brunt assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:2751–90
Kimani Hamilton makes 27-foot three point jumper (Josh Hubbard assists)
- FT2nd Half 5:0551–91
Kimani Hamilton makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 5:0551–92
Kimani Hamilton makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:3253–92
Chip Brunt makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:0653–94
ND Okafor makes layup (Kimani Hamilton assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:4254–94
AT Manyuon makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:4255–94
AT Manyuon makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:5655–96
Tee Bartlett makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:2755–98
Jalyn Collingwood makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:0857–98
Blake Nettles makes layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| JKST | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 N. Williams F · #22 | 19 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
 AT Manyuon G · #3 | 22 | 6 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 D. McMillian G · #1 | 25 | 0 | 0-8 | 0-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 D. Williams G · #12 | 20 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 D. Ruffin G · #24 | 22 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 K. Butler F · #21 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 E. Wilson C · #7 | 12 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
 J. Williams C · #4 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 DJ Davis G · #6 | 18 | 5 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 B. Nettles G · #0 | 3 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 M. Williams G · #11 | 27 | 23 | 7-15 | 6-8 | 3-3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 T. Hoover G · #5 | 10 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 C. Brunt G · #10 | 18 | 7 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 TK Lawson F · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Kolev F · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Husband G · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Jones G · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 57 | 21-60 | 10-30 | 5-7 | 21 | 10 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 15 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| JKST | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 21-60 | 39-67 |
| FG% | 35 | 58 |
| 3PT | 10-30 | 9-23 |
| 3P% | 33 | 39 |
| FT | 5-7 | 11-15 |
| FT% | 71 | 73 |
| REB | 21 | 49 |
| OR | 7 | 16 |
| DR | 14 | 33 |
| AST | 10 | 21 |
| STL | 9 | 8 |
| BLK | 3 | 3 |
| TO | 17 | 15 |
| TTO | 2 | 1 |
| ToTO | 17 | 15 |
| TECH | 2 | 0 |
| TECH | 2 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 1 |
| PTS OFF TO | 9 | 21 |
| FBPs | 10 | 18 |
| PIP | 20 | 58 |
| PF | 15 | 9 |
| LL | 2 | 43 |
| LC | 4 | 4 |
| LPCT | 3 | 90 |
At lock JKST 69.71–91.45 MSST · MSST by 21.7 pts vs JKST +23.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissN. Williams · JKST
19 MIN · 2 PTST. Bassong · MSST
20 MIN · 10 PTSMike Williams · JKST
STAT · 27 MIN · 23 PTS · 7-15 FG · 6-8 3PTJosh Hubbard · MSST
STAT · 26 MIN · 14 PTS · 4-10 FG · 3-6 3PTTristan Reed · MSST
STAT · 14 MIN · 14 PTS · 7-10 FG · 8 REBRJ Johnson · MSST
STAT · 18 MIN · 12 PTS · 4-8 FG · 0-3 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Jackson St vs Mississippi St pick result · Nov 9, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is JKST +23.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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