Northwestern State Demons at Mississippi State Bulldogs
Final · SECN+
44–82Last shot · Dionjahe Thomas misses free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected NWST 66.16–84.98 MSST
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 6:04 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1177455717
- Winner: Mississippi St (95%)
- Spread: NWST +21.5 covers (60%)
- Total: Under 151.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)25
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
NWST 66.16–84.98 MSST · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseMSST +22.2 off · NWST +24.4 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to MSST
- RecordMSST 2-0 · NWST 0-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward MSST -21.5 / total 151.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NWST | 27 | 17 | 44 |
| MSST | 49 | 33 | 82 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 7:0939–69
Josh Hubbard makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 6:5241–69
Antoine Almuttar makes layup (Kordrick Turner assists)
- FT2nd Half 5:4741–70
ND Okafor makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 5:4741–71
ND Okafor makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 5:2443–71
Isaiah Vick makes layup (Armon Almuttar assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:5043–74
Josh Hubbard makes 25-foot three point jumper
- FT2nd Half 4:2743–75
Josh Hubbard makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:2743–76
Josh Hubbard makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 3:1043–78
King Grace makes 1-foot dunk
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:3143–80
Tristan Reed makes 4-foot jumper (Willie Burnett III assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:0143–82
Tee Bartlett makes layup (Jalyn Collingwood assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:1044–82
Dionjahe Thomas makes free throw 1 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| NWST | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 I. Vick F · #1 | 27 | 2 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 K. Turner F · #23 | 22 | 6 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
 N. Ojukwu F · #13 | 16 | 1 | 0-5 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 An. Almuttar G · #5 | 28 | 5 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 3-7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
 K. Simpson G · #4 | 30 | 13 | 4-16 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
 J. Nesbitt F · #15 | 6 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 C. Kelly F · #2 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 A. Osojnik F · #3 | 14 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 D. Thomas F · #8 | 16 | 7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
 Ar. Almuttar G · #22 | 18 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 B. Remo G · #12 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 D. Brown G · #11 | 18 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 CJ Larry G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 I. Miles G · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 44 | 14-47 | 4-15 | 12-25 | 34 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 20 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NWST | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 14-47 | 26-64 |
| FG% | 30 | 41 |
| 3PT | 4-15 | 8-28 |
| 3P% | 27 | 29 |
| FT | 12-25 | 22-31 |
| FT% | 48 | 71 |
| REB | 34 | 50 |
| OR | 10 | 20 |
| DR | 24 | 30 |
| AST | 6 | 11 |
| STL | 3 | 4 |
| BLK | 3 | 7 |
| TO | 12 | 6 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 12 | 6 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 1 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 4 | 14 |
| FBPs | 2 | 8 |
| PIP | 18 | 30 |
| PF | 20 | 20 |
| LL | 0 | 39 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 95 |
At lock NWST 66.16–84.98 MSST · MSST by 18.8 pts vs NWST +21.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
MissI. Vick · NWST
27 MIN · 2 PTST. Bassong · MSST
19 MIN · 8 PTSJosh Hubbard · MSST
STAT · 24 MIN · 15 PTS · 4-10 FG · 3-6 3PTKai Simpson · NWST
STAT · 30 MIN · 13 PTS · 4-16 FG · 2-5 3PTKing Grace · MSST
STAT · 12 MIN · 12 PTS · 5-8 FG · 2-4 3PTKimani Hamilton · MSST
STAT · 17 MIN · 10 PTS · 4-6 FG · 0-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
N'Western St vs Mississippi St pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is NWST +21.5, with a 55% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day