Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles at Mississippi State Bulldogs
Final · SECN+
88–106Last shot · Caleb Sanders makes layup
At lock: projected TNTC 70.07–85.59 MSST
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1127122860
- Winner: Mississippi St (92%)
- Spread: TNTC +17.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Under 157.5 (60%)
- Score error (both teams)38
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
TNTC 70.07–85.59 MSST · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseMSST +0.0 off · TNTC +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to MSST
- Market priorBlended 86% toward MSST -18.5 / total 158.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TNTC | 37 | 51 | 88 |
| MSST | 53 | 53 | 106 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 3:5279–94
Caleb Sanders makes free throw 1 of 1
- FT2nd Half 3:4279–95
Thomas Bassong makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:3182–95
Cbo Newton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ty Owens assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:1982–96
Josh Hubbard makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:0684–96
Kamai Samuels makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:4784–98
Josh Hubbard makes 12-foot jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:0384–100
Josh Hubbard makes 4-foot jumper
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:3884–102
Thomas Bassong makes layup (Josh Hubbard assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:1584–104
Tajuan Simpkins makes layup (Josh Hubbard assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:5086–104
Kamai Samuels makes layup
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 0:2786–106
Thomas Bassong makes 0-foot tip in dunk
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:1488–106
Caleb Sanders makes layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| TNTC | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 C. Sanders F · #11 | 33 | 28 | 9-13 | 1-2 | 9-10 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
 D. Green F · #1 | 23 | 12 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
K K. Samuels G · #0 | 16 | 8 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
 C. Newton G · #5 | 24 | 9 | 2-9 | 2-6 | 3-4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
 T. Mosquera G · #7 | 32 | 9 | 3-11 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
S S. Arnold F · #12 | 11 | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
 M. Turner F · #4 | 4 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
 D. Hackett G · #3 | 9 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 Ty Owens G · #2 | 26 | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
C C. Hollenbeck G · #10 | 22 | 8 | 3-10 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
K K. Fox F · #20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Christensen F · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
H H. Stewart G · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
J J. Pampolina G · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
C C. Gonzales G · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 88 | 32-66 | 9-32 | 15-20 | 26 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 16 | 20 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| TNTC | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 32-66 | 35-60 |
| FG% | 48 | 58 |
| 3PT | 9-32 | 12-24 |
| 3P% | 28 | 50 |
| FT | 15-20 | 24-32 |
| FT% | 75 | 75 |
| REB | 26 | 39 |
| OR | 10 | 12 |
| DR | 16 | 27 |
| AST | 14 | 23 |
| STL | 10 | 7 |
| BLK | 1 | 5 |
| TO | 12 | 15 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 12 | 15 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 16 | 21 |
| FBPs | 20 | 13 |
| PIP | 46 | 46 |
| PF | 20 | 19 |
| LL | 2 | 22 |
| LC | 6 | 6 |
| LPCT | 4 | 90 |
At lock TNTC 70.07–85.59 MSST · MSST by 15.5 pts vs TNTC +17.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissC. Sanders · TNTC
33 MIN · 28 PTST. Bassong · MSST
23 MIN · 14 PTSJosh Hubbard · MSST
STAT · 31 MIN · 25 PTS · 7-11 FG · 3-4 3PTKing Grace · MSST
STAT · 23 MIN · 23 PTS · 8-12 FG · 4-6 3PTTajuan Simpkins · MSST
STAT · 32 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-11 FG · 1-4 3PTDe'Ante Green · TNTC
STAT · 23 MIN · 12 PTS · 4-9 FG · 1-3 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Tennessee Tech vs Mississippi St pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is TNTC +17.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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