Merrimack Warriors at Florida Gators
Final · SEC Network
54–83Last shot · Jeremiah Anderson makes driving layup
At lock: projected MRMK 56.00–87.90 FLA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 12, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1311970859
- Winner: Florida (100%)
- Spread: MRMK +37.5 covers (69%)
- Total: Over 143.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)7
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MRMK 56.00–87.90 FLA · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseFLA +4.0 off · MRMK -3.4 off, shrunk 27%
- Home field+3.4 pts to FLA
- RecordFLA 4-0 · MRMK 1-3
- Market priorBlended 83% toward FLA -35.5 / total 139.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MRMK | 26 | 28 | 54 |
| FLA | 43 | 40 | 83 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 6:0741–69
Arturas Butajevas makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:2144–69
AJ Lesburt Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ayden Johnson assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:5544–71
AJ Brown makes layup
- FT2nd Half 4:5544–72
AJ Brown makes free throw 1 of 1
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:2544–75
AJ Brown makes 24-foot three point jumper (Viktor Mikic assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:2647–75
Denver Anglin makes 27-foot three point jumper (Todd Brogna assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:5550–75
Denver Anglin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Elijah Wilborn assists)
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 2:2250–77
Domen Petrovic makes 0-foot tip in layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:5550–80
Alex Kovatchev makes 28-foot three point jumper (Alex Lloyd assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:4152–80
Denver Anglin makes 19-foot jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:2752–83
Alex Kovatchev makes 26-foot three point jumper (Arturas Butajevas assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:1154–83
Jeremiah Anderson makes driving layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MRMK | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 T. Brogna F · #20 | 36 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
 E. Wilborn F · #5 | 13 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
 A. Johnson G · #3 | 28 | 8 | 3-9 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 AJ Lesburt Jr. G · #33 | 38 | 16 | 6-11 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 D. Anglin G · #2 | 27 | 14 | 5-12 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 JP Skoric F · #10 | 6 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 J. Moore F · #14 | 17 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 D. Veillette F · #0 | 10 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 R. Westfield G · #13 | 5 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 J. Anderson G · #1 | 20 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 D. Munro F · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Guerra G · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Vladimir Soqui Urbano G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Q. Kwasniak G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Dorset G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 54 | 21-52 | 10-25 | 2-2 | 17 | 11 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 16 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MRMK | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 21-52 | 27-52 |
| FG% | 40 | 52 |
| 3PT | 10-25 | 8-23 |
| 3P% | 40 | 35 |
| FT | 2-2 | 21-22 |
| FT% | 100 | 95 |
| REB | 17 | 39 |
| OR | 3 | 11 |
| DR | 14 | 28 |
| AST | 11 | 19 |
| STL | 5 | 6 |
| BLK | 2 | 4 |
| TO | 13 | 12 |
| TTO | 2 | 2 |
| ToTO | 13 | 12 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 13 | 21 |
| FBPs | 2 | 14 |
| PIP | 16 | 36 |
| PF | 16 | 7 |
| LL | 1 | 34 |
| LC | 4 | 4 |
| LPCT | 2 | 96 |
At lock MRMK 56.00–87.90 FLA · FLA by 31.9 pts vs MRMK +37.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock
HitT. Brogna · MRMK
36 MIN · 5 PTSA. Condon · FLA
22 MIN · 16 PTSAJ Lesburt Jr. · MRMK
STAT · 38 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-11 FG · 4-7 3PTThomas Haugh · FLA
STAT · 24 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-9 FG · 0-2 3PTDenver Anglin · MRMK
STAT · 27 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-12 FG · 4-8 3PTRueben Chinyelu · FLA
STAT · 24 MIN · 12 PTS · 5-6 FG · 2-2 FT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Merrimack vs Florida pick result · Nov 13, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MRMK +37.5, with a 59% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day