Florida Gators at Florida State Seminoles
Final · ESPN2
81–72Last shot · Alex Condon makes free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected FLA 87.25–79.79 FSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 9, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1328748478
- Winner: Florida (75%)
- Spread: FSU +9.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Over 166.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)15
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
FLA 87.25–79.79 FSU · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseFSU +15.3 off · FLA +11.4 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to FSU
- RecordFSU 2-1 · FLA 3-0
- Market priorBlended 84% toward FLA -8.5 / total 164.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 31 | 50 | 81 |
| FSU | 29 | 43 | 72 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 1:1973–64
Boogie Fland makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:1974–64
Boogie Fland makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:1274–67
Anthony Robinson II makes 24-foot three point jumper
- FT2nd Half 1:0775–67
Thomas Haugh makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:0776–67
Thomas Haugh makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:5076–70
Anthony Robinson II makes 27-foot three point jumper
- FT2nd Half 0:3977–70
Thomas Haugh makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3478–70
Boogie Fland makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:2678–72
Kam Taylor makes 12-foot pullup jump shot
- FT2nd Half 0:1879–72
Denzel Aberdeen makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1880–72
Denzel Aberdeen makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0981–72
Alex Condon makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| FLA | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Condon F · #21 | 34 | 9 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 1-5 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 3 |
 T. Haugh F · #10 | 34 | 21 | 4-8 | 3-6 | 10-12 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
 R. Chinyelu C · #9 | 31 | 8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
 B. Fland G · #0 | 33 | 14 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 5-7 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
 D. Aberdeen G · #1 | 27 | 7 | 2-9 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 D. Petrovic F · #19 | 11 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 U. Klavzar G · #7 | 18 | 10 | 1-7 | 1-7 | 7-7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 I. Brown G · #20 | 12 | 9 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
 A. Butajevas F · #25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Lay C · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 V. Mikic C · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 CJ Ingram G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Kovatchev G · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 AJ Brown G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Lloyd G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 81 | 21-51 | 9-28 | 30-41 | 41 | 11 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 29 | 19 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| FLA | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 21-51 | 27-62 |
| FG% | 41 | 44 |
| 3PT | 9-28 | 4-21 |
| 3P% | 32 | 19 |
| FT | 30-41 | 14-18 |
| FT% | 73 | 78 |
| REB | 41 | 29 |
| OR | 12 | 9 |
| DR | 29 | 20 |
| AST | 11 | 7 |
| STL | 5 | 8 |
| BLK | 3 | 3 |
| TO | 14 | 12 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 14 | 12 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 7 | 17 |
| FBPs | 0 | 4 |
| PIP | 20 | 32 |
| PF | 19 | 27 |
| LL | 11 | 5 |
| LC | 8 | 8 |
| LPCT | 83 | 11 |
At lock FLA 87.25–79.79 FSU · FLA by 7.5 pts vs FSU +9.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitA. Condon · FLA
34 MIN · 9 PTSS. Rancik · FSU
33 MIN · 23 PTSThomas Haugh · FLA
STAT · 34 MIN · 21 PTS · 4-8 FG · 3-6 3PTAnthony Robinson II · FSU
STAT · 35 MIN · 19 PTS · 6-12 FG · 2-5 3PTBoogie Fland · FLA
STAT · 33 MIN · 14 PTS · 4-7 FG · 1-3 3PTUrban Klavzar · FLA
STAT · 18 MIN · 10 PTS · 1-7 FG · 1-7 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Florida vs Florida St pick result · Nov 10, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is FSU +9.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day