Jacksonville Dolphins at Florida Gators
Final · SECN+
57–88Last shot · Lyndell Buckingham Jr. misses 26-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected JAX 62.19–93.74 FLA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 6:04 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1345526097
- Winner: Florida (100%)
- Spread: JAX +36.5 covers (67%)
- Total: Over 155.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)11
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
JAX 62.19–93.74 FLA · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseFLA +19.3 off · JAX +13.0 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to FLA
- RecordFLA 2-0 · JAX 1-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward FLA -37.5 / total 155.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | 28 | 29 | 57 |
| FLA | 50 | 38 | 88 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 6:3347–81
Viktor Mikic makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 6:2149–81
Lyndell Buckingham Jr. makes 17-foot pullup jump shot
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 5:4849–83
Isaiah Brown makes 2-foot dunk (Boogie Fland assists)
- FT2nd Half 5:2149–84
Arturas Butajevas makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 5:1550–84
Sam Mbingazo makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:2252–84
Rex Stirling makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:2352–87
AJ Brown makes 25-foot three point jumper
- FT2nd Half 2:1552–88
Alex Kovatchev makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:4154–88
Lyndell Buckingham Jr. makes 18-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 0:5955–88
Lyndell Buckingham Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:5956–88
Lyndell Buckingham Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3557–88
Rex Stirling makes free throw 1 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| JAX | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Morrow F · #22 | 16 | 9 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
 S. Mbingazo C · #35 | 18 | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 H. Wood G · #8 | 32 | 11 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
 C. Williams G · #1 | 26 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Phillips Jr. G · #0 | 32 | 10 | 5-14 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 R. Stirling F · #25 | 18 | 5 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
 N. Turner F · #6 | 16 | 7 | 2-7 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
 J. Newell F · #7 | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 M. Palmer G · #44 | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 LJ Katz G · #9 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 E. Roberts G · #5 | 6 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 L. Buckingham Jr. G · #2 | 7 | 6 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 E. Sterck G · #34 | 17 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 R. Loux G · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 57 | 19-57 | 6-21 | 13-15 | 25 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 20 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| JAX | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 19-57 | 29-60 |
| FG% | 33 | 48 |
| 3PT | 6-21 | 11-25 |
| 3P% | 29 | 44 |
| FT | 13-15 | 19-27 |
| FT% | 87 | 70 |
| REB | 25 | 52 |
| OR | 8 | 20 |
| DR | 17 | 32 |
| AST | 6 | 18 |
| STL | 11 | 4 |
| BLK | 1 | 5 |
| TO | 9 | 14 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 9 | 14 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 2 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 10 | 12 |
| FBPs | 6 | 4 |
| PIP | 12 | 36 |
| PF | 20 | 12 |
| LL | 1 | 36 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 1 | 98 |
At lock JAX 62.19–93.74 FLA · FLA by 31.5 pts vs JAX +36.5 · 58% is the confidence saved at lock
HitJ. Morrow · JAX
16 MIN · 9 PTSA. Condon · FLA
25 MIN · 12 PTSRueben Chinyelu · FLA
STAT · 22 MIN · 21 PTS · 7-9 FG · 7-9 FTThomas Haugh · FLA
STAT · 26 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-8 FG · 2-4 3PTDenzel Aberdeen · FLA
STAT · 24 MIN · 12 PTS · 4-9 FG · 4-5 3PTUrban Klavzar · FLA
STAT · 21 MIN · 12 PTS · 4-8 FG · 3-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Jacksonville vs Florida pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is JAX +36.5, with a 58% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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