Miami Hurricanes at Florida Gators
Final · ESPNEWS
67–77Last shot · Denzel Aberdeen misses driving layup
At lock: projected MIA 75.89–80.08 FLA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:11 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1127269955
- Winner: Florida (64%)
- Spread: MIA +4.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Under 160.5 (72%)
- Score error (both teams)12
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MIA 75.89–80.08 FLA · Medium confidence
Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexFLA +22.2 vs MIA +17.2 · pred margin +6.7
- Attack / defenseFLA +0.0 off · MIA +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to FLA
- Market priorBlended 72% toward FLA -6.5 / total 158.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 36 | 31 | 67 |
| FLA | 46 | 31 | 77 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 5:0561–69
Shelton Henderson makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:3562–69
Caleb Gaskins makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:0462–71
Thomas Haugh makes layup
- FT2nd Half 3:0163–71
Malik Reneau makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:5063–72
Rueben Chinyelu makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2163–73
Boogie Fland makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2163–74
Boogie Fland makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:2165–74
Acaden Lewis makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 1:0365–75
Boogie Fland makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:5567–75
Acaden Lewis makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 0:5567–76
Alex Condon makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:5567–77
Alex Condon makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MIA | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 C. Gaskins F · #11 | 15 | 4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
 M. Reneau F · #5 | 23 | 5 | 1-6 | 1-1 | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
 S. Henderson F · #7 | 32 | 7 | 2-13 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
 S. Cyril C · #2 | 28 | 13 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
 A. Lewis G · #55 | 36 | 24 | 9-20 | 2-8 | 4-5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
 R. Miller III F · #6 | 17 | 6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
 E. Ryzhov C · #10 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 N. Dorn G · #3 | 12 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 D. Allen G · #35 | 22 | 3 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
 B. Bland G · #1 | 13 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 D. Goode F · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Birden Jr. F · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Allen F · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 L.J. Cason G · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Q. Berger G · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 67 | 21-60 | 4-17 | 21-30 | 39 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 26 | 27 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MIA | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 21-60 | 23-53 |
| FG% | 35 | 43 |
| 3PT | 4-17 | 11-26 |
| 3P% | 24 | 42 |
| FT | 21-30 | 20-35 |
| FT% | 70 | 57 |
| REB | 39 | 44 |
| OR | 13 | 12 |
| DR | 26 | 32 |
| AST | 6 | 17 |
| STL | 5 | 7 |
| BLK | 0 | 5 |
| TO | 11 | 12 |
| TTO | 0 | 2 |
| ToTO | 11 | 12 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 1 | 2 |
| PTS OFF TO | 7 | 21 |
| FBPs | 10 | 7 |
| PIP | 26 | 22 |
| PF | 27 | 21 |
| LL | 3 | 14 |
| LC | 5 | 5 |
| LPCT | 12 | 83 |
At lock MIA 75.89–80.08 FLA · 4.5 pts under 160.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitC. Gaskins · MIA
15 MIN · 4 PTSA. Condon · FLA
26 MIN · 11 PTSAcaden Lewis · MIA
STAT · 36 MIN · 24 PTS · 9-20 FG · 2-8 3PTThomas Haugh · FLA
STAT · 38 MIN · 19 PTS · 6-13 FG · 4-8 3PTSomto Cyril · MIA
STAT · 28 MIN · 13 PTS · 4-5 FG · 5-6 FTBoogie Fland · FLA
STAT · 33 MIN · 12 PTS · 2-9 FG · 2-3 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Miami vs Florida pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 160.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day