Sam Houston Bearkats at Alabama Crimson Tide
Final · SECN+
74–96Last shot · Rylan Kelly makes 22-foot three point jumper (Xavier Roberson assists)
At lock: projected SHSU 73.62–96.88 ALA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3241691234
- Winner: Alabama (98%)
- Spread: SHSU +26.5 covers (60%)
- Total: Over 170.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
SHSU 73.62–96.88 ALA · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseALA +0.0 off · SHSU +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to ALA
- Market priorBlended 86% toward ALA -27.5 / total 172.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SHSU | 29 | 45 | 74 |
| ALA | 40 | 56 | 96 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:3861–87
Jacobe Coleman makes 24-foot three point jumper (Justin Begg assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:5961–90
Amari Allen makes 24-foot three point jumper (Drew Fielder assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 2:4961–92
Jamarion Davis-Fleming makes 3-foot alley oop dunk (Qayden Samuels assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:3664–92
Jacobe Coleman makes 24-foot three point jumper (Zion Pipkin assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:0767–92
Aidan McDowell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Enel St. Bernard assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:1367–94
Jaxon Richardson makes 3-foot alley oop dunk (Qayden Samuels assists)
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 0:5669–94
Mahliq Guiseppi-Kitson makes 0-foot tip in layup
- FT2nd Half 0:4569–95
Qayden Samuels makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4569–96
Qayden Samuels makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2670–96
Riccardo Greppi makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2671–96
Riccardo Greppi makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:0474–96
Rylan Kelly makes 22-foot three point jumper (Xavier Roberson assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| SHSU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 E. St. Bernard F | 29 | 5 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
 M. Guiseppi-Kitson G | 11 | 6 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
 A. McDowell G | 29 | 10 | 3-11 | 2-6 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
 J. Coleman G · #2 | 31 | 16 | 5-15 | 4-10 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
 J. Begg G · #5 | 27 | 13 | 5-11 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
 R. Greppi F | 17 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
 C. Sadibou Ndiaye F · #23 | 11 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 X. Roberson G | 12 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 R. Kelly G | 10 | 4 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 Z. Pipkin G | 23 | 11 | 4-6 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 M. Dann F · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Nguyen G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 74 | 25-65 | 15-33 | 9-16 | 45 | 17 | 23 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 30 | 16 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SHSU | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 25-65 | 36-75 |
| FG% | 38 | 48 |
| 3PT | 15-33 | 10-31 |
| 3P% | 45 | 32 |
| FT | 9-16 | 14-19 |
| FT% | 56 | 74 |
| REB | 45 | 42 |
| OR | 15 | 13 |
| DR | 30 | 29 |
| AST | 17 | 17 |
| STL | 7 | 17 |
| BLK | 6 | 10 |
| TO | 23 | 10 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 23 | 10 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 13 | 33 |
| FBPs | 11 | 41 |
| PIP | 18 | 48 |
| PF | 16 | 16 |
| LL | 0 | 32 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 97 |
At lock SHSU 73.62–96.88 ALA · ALA by 23.3 pts vs SHSU +26.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
HitE. St. Bernard · SHSU
29 MIN · 5 PTST. Bouie · ALA
19 MIN · 13 PTSJacobe Coleman · SHSU
STAT · 31 MIN · 16 PTS · 5-15 FG · 4-10 3PTDrew Fielder · ALA
STAT · 21 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-9 FG · 2-4 3PTLondon Jemison · ALA
STAT · 20 MIN · 15 PTS · 6-7 FG · 3-4 3PTJustin Begg · SHSU
STAT · 27 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-11 FG · 3-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Sam Houston vs Alabama pick result · Nov 3, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is SHSU +26.5, with a 55% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day