Butler Bulldogs at Boise State Broncos
Final · USA Net
81–100Last shot · Jalen Jackson makes 25-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected BTLR 78.81–81.35 BOIS
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 8:50 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 152882967
- Winner: Boise St (60%)
- Spread: BOIS -1.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Over 157.5 (66%)
- Score error (both teams)20
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
BTLR 78.81–81.35 BOIS · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseBOIS +19.5 off · BTLR +12.5 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to BOIS
- RecordBOIS 2-0 · BTLR 2-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward BOIS -3.5 / total 158.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTLR | 31 | 50 | 81 |
| BOIS | 51 | 49 | 100 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 3:0671–85
Spencer Ahrens makes free throw 1 of 1
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:5574–85
Jordan Ellerbee makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Jackson assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:0774–88
Rayzhon Bergersen makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aginaldo Neto assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:5074–90
Spencer Ahrens makes 6-foot dunk (Rayzhon Bergersen assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:3476–90
Jordan Ellerbee makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:3076–93
Spencer Ahrens makes 24-foot three point jumper (Damari Wheeler-Thomas assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:2176–94
Dovydas Butka makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2176–95
Dovydas Butka makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:0978–95
Jalen Jackson makes layup (Treyson Anderson assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3178–98
Spencer Ahrens makes 26-foot three point jumper (Damari Wheeler-Thomas assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:2278–100
Aginaldo Neto makes driving layup (Damari Wheeler-Thomas assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:0481–100
Jalen Jackson makes 25-foot three point jumper
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| BTLR | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Djulovic F · #33 | 22 | 8 | 3-10 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
 T. Anderson F · #44 | 26 | 13 | 4-9 | 1-5 | 4-4 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
 D. Jones C · #13 | 19 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
 E. Klafke G · #8 | 31 | 19 | 5-10 | 2-7 | 7-7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
 J. Jackson G · #1 | 34 | 19 | 8-17 | 1-5 | 2-3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
 S. Calderon F · #6 | 27 | 2 | 1-7 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
 S. Adler G · #12 | 17 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
 B. Walker G · #4 | 6 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Ellerbee G · #2 | 18 | 16 | 6-11 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 M. Maric F · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Cardinal F · #35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Moore F · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 H. Brutus F · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Ndzie C · #39 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 E. McComb G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 81 | 29-74 | 8-36 | 15-16 | 43 | 15 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 31 | 17 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| BTLR | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 29-74 | 36-79 |
| FG% | 39 | 46 |
| 3PT | 8-36 | 17-35 |
| 3P% | 22 | 49 |
| FT | 15-16 | 11-17 |
| FT% | 94 | 65 |
| REB | 43 | 45 |
| OR | 12 | 14 |
| DR | 31 | 31 |
| AST | 15 | 22 |
| STL | 4 | 10 |
| BLK | 2 | 5 |
| TO | 15 | 10 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 15 | 10 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 10 | 18 |
| FBPs | 14 | 11 |
| PIP | 42 | 36 |
| PF | 17 | 16 |
| LL | 2 | 26 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 1 | 99 |
At lock BTLR 78.81–81.35 BOIS · BOIS by 2.5 pts vs BOIS -1.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitA. Djulovic · BTLR
22 MIN · 8 PTSD. Butka · BOIS
31 MIN · 14 PTSAginaldo Neto · BOIS
STAT · 38 MIN · 25 PTS · 10-20 FG · 4-5 3PTSpencer Ahrens · BOIS
STAT · 29 MIN · 24 PTS · 9-18 FG · 5-11 3PTEduardo Klafke · BTLR
STAT · 31 MIN · 19 PTS · 5-10 FG · 2-7 3PTJalen Jackson · BTLR
STAT · 34 MIN · 19 PTS · 8-17 FG · 1-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Butler vs Boise St pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is BOIS -1.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day