Fairleigh Dickinson Knights at Butler Bulldogs
Final · ESPN+
65–99Last shot · Jordan Ellerbee misses free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected FDU 66.06–87.44 BTLR
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 3, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 136105348
- Winner: Butler (97%)
- Spread: FDU +24.5 covers (61%)
- Total: Under 153.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)13
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
FDU 66.06–87.44 BTLR · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseBTLR +19.3 off · FDU +22.1 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to BTLR
- RecordBTLR 2-0 · FDU 0-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward BTLR -29.5 / total 154.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FDU | 29 | 36 | 65 |
| BTLR | 52 | 47 | 99 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 5:4755–89
Pavle Stosic makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 5:4756–89
Pavle Stosic makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 5:3756–91
Asim Djulovic makes driving layup (Eduardo Klafke assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 5:2558–91
Raysean Johnson makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:4860–91
Pavle Stosic makes driving layup (Ras Elijah Godbolt assists)
- FT2nd Half 4:2161–91
Pavle Stosic makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:5461–93
Jalen Jackson makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 3:2761–94
Jordan Ellerbee makes free throw 1 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 2:4163–94
Diing Maiwen makes 1-foot dunk (Pavle Stosic assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:0563–96
Samu Adler makes driving layup (Christian Moore assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:4665–96
Pavle Stosic makes 13-foot turnaround jump shot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:2965–99
Samu Adler makes 25-foot three point jumper (Christian Moore assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| FDU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 T. Torain F · #22 | 32 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
 P. Stošic F · #6 | 27 | 19 | 7-11 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 D. Jevtic G · #35 | 31 | 11 | 4-11 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
 R. Johnson G · #13 | 23 | 11 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
 JR Jacobs G · #0 | 28 | 11 | 5-8 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
A A. Ratliff F · #1 | 9 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 B. Agu F · #8 | 6 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 D. Maiwen G · #14 | 10 | 7 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 D. Wright G · #4 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 V. Prophete G · #2 | 16 | 2 | 0-5 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 R. Godbolt G · #24 | 15 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 S. Haubro C · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Dickerson G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Bullock Coles G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. McQuaid G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Canda G · #30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 65 | 25-58 | 5-21 | 10-16 | 22 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 19 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| FDU | BTLR | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 25-58 | 36-67 |
| FG% | 43 | 54 |
| 3PT | 5-21 | 20-43 |
| 3P% | 24 | 47 |
| FT | 10-16 | 7-16 |
| FT% | 63 | 44 |
| REB | 22 | 41 |
| OR | 7 | 15 |
| DR | 15 | 26 |
| AST | 12 | 31 |
| STL | 7 | 2 |
| BLK | 1 | 4 |
| TO | 8 | 11 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 8 | 11 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 11 | 4 |
| FBPs | 6 | 9 |
| PIP | 34 | 28 |
| PF | 19 | 17 |
| LL | 0 | 35 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 98 |
At lock FDU 66.06–87.44 BTLR · BTLR by 21.4 pts vs FDU +24.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
MissT. Torain · FDU
32 MIN · 2 PTSA. Djulovic · BTLR
25 MIN · 25 PTSPavle Stosic · FDU
STAT · 27 MIN · 19 PTS · 7-11 FG · 0-1 3PTEduardo Klafke · BTLR
STAT · 26 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-9 FG · 4-6 3PTJalen Jackson · BTLR
STAT · 29 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-11 FG · 4-7 3PTSamu Adler · BTLR
STAT · 23 MIN · 15 PTS · 4-7 FG · 2-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
FDU vs Butler pick result · Nov 4, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is FDU +24.5, with a 56% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day