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San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz

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Lean · TotalNot a strong play

Over 223.5

-108 at lock51%

Model projects SA 121.42 – 104.95 UTAH · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.1%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

V. Wembanyama · SA
Forward
D. Fox · SA
Guard
K. George · UTAH
Guard
A. Bailey · UTAH
Guard

Data-Driven Pick · V. Wembanyama Under 27.5 pts

Strong play-116

San Antonio Spurs

11-2 · W11

1553 PF · 1381 PA

121.42

Projected

Utah Jazz

1-12 · L11 · computer pick

1397 PF · 1542 PA

104.95

SA 92%UTAH 8%

At lock: projected SA 121.42–104.95 UTAH

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

UTAH +17.5—

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

SA -14.8

SA -17.5

Total

226.9

224.5

Gap: +2.7 margin, +2.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: SA vs UTAH

The model

How this number was built

SA 121.42–104.95 UTAH · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
UTAH -7.5 vs SA +10.2 · pred margin -16.6
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. net -7.3 vs +8.4 · model UTAH 108.6–123.2 SA
Home field
+2.8 pts to UTAH
Record
UTAH 1-12 · SA 11-2
Market prior
Blended 64% toward SA -17.5 / total 224.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Victor Wembanyama
PTS 28.8
Victor Wembanyama
REB 11.7
De'Aaron Fox
AST 5.8
Victor Wembanyama
rating 28.8 PPG, 11.7 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.2 SPG, 4.2 BPG

Keyonte George
PTS 20.9
Ace Bailey
REB 6.3
Keyonte George
AST 6.5
Keyonte George
rating 20.9 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 6.5 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.2 BPG

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SA	UTAH
STRK	W11	L11
OPP PPG	106.2	118.6
L10	10-0	0-10
PTS	119.5	107.5
FG%	47	43
3P%	35	33
REB	48.6	44.5
AST	28.1	24.0
BLK	7.3	6.2
STL	8.3	6.7
TTO	0.6	0.7
ToTO	12.3	16.7

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

V. Wembanyama Under 27.5 pts

-11658%

Points · DraftKings

S. Castle Under 15.5 pts
Points · SA
-118
57%
D. Fox Under 13.5 pts
Points · SA
-120
57%
K. George Under 19.5 pts
Points · UTAH
-109
57%
K. Johnson Under 9.5 pts
Points · SA
-117
56%
D. Peterson Under 18.5 pts
Points · UTAH
-106
56%
D. Harper Under 15.5 pts
Points · SA
-103
55%
J. Champagnie Under 8.5 pts
Points · SA
+100
53%

Spurs vs Jazz prediction · Nov 15, 2026

The model projects Spurs 121.4, Jazz 105.0. Model win probability: Jazz 8%, Spurs 92%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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