Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat
Final · NBA TV
117–137Last shot · Ronald Holland II misses two point shot
At lock: projected DET 117.14–111.87 MIA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 692240065
- Winner: Pistons (67%)
- Spread: MIA +5.5 covers (50%)
- Total: Over 226.5 (65%)
- Score error (both teams)26
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Adebayo points | — | 19 | 20 | off 1 |
| D. Robinson points | — | 15 | 10 | off -5 |
| D. Mitchell points | — | 12 | 15 | off 3 |
| C. Cunningham points | — | 23 | 33 | off 10 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: DET vs MIA
The model
How this number was built
DET 117.14–111.87 MIA · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexMIA +1.3 vs DET +3.9 · pred margin -3.7
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -0.4 vs +5.8 · back-to-back: MIA · model MIA 113.5–120.8 DET
- Home field+2.8 pts to MIA
- RecordMIA 8-6 · DET 8-5
- Market priorBlended 65% toward DET -4.5 / total 228.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 39 | 21 | 26 | 31 | 117 |
| MIA | 37 | 31 | 35 | 34 | 137 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 1:56111–127Cade Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:56112–127
Cade Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2
SCORE4th Quarter 1:41112–129Giannis Antetokounmpo makes driving layup
- FT4th Quarter 1:41112–130
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 1
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:27112–132
Andrew Wiggins makes running layup (Klay Thompson assists)
- FT4th Quarter 1:23113–132
Elijah Harkless makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:23114–132
Elijah Harkless makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:05116–132
Tolu Smith makes two point shot
- FT4th Quarter 1:01117–132
Tolu Smith makes free throw 1 of 2
- 3PT4th Quarter 47.1117–135
Ryan Conwell makes 27-foot three pointer (Nikola Jovic assists)
- FT4th Quarter 29.5117–136
Tre Donaldson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 29.5117–137
Tre Donaldson makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| DET | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 D. Robinson F · #55 | 17 | 10 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -12 |
 J. Collins F · #20 | 26 | 8 | 3-13 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -8 |
 C. Cunningham G · #2 | 36 | 33 | 8-20 | 3-8 | 14-14 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -12 |
 A. Thompson G · #9 | 18 | 10 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | +5 |
 D. Jenkins G · #24 | 35 | 10 | 4-14 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -22 |
 T. Prince F · #12 | 8 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -12 |
 P. Reed F · #7 | 23 | 9 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -6 |
 T. Smith F · #35 | 1 | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 |
 R. Holland II F · #5 | 22 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -27 |
 I. Jones C · #13 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -5 |
 J. Green G · #31 | 12 | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +8 |
 K. Huerter G · #27 | 38 | 20 | 9-15 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -5 |
 E. Harkless G · #94 | 2 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 |
| Team | 117 | 39-97 | 11-34 | 28-32 | 46 | 31 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 24 | 28 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| DET | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 39-97 | 44-87 |
| FG% | 40 | 51 |
| 3PT | 11-34 | 16-41 |
| 3P% | 32 | 39 |
| FT | 28-32 | 33-40 |
| FT% | 88 | 83 |
| REB | 46 | 49 |
| OR | 22 | 13 |
| DR | 24 | 36 |
| AST | 31 | 34 |
| STL | 8 | 10 |
| BLK | 6 | 14 |
| TO | 14 | 13 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 14 | 14 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 20 | 18 |
| FBPs | 11 | 28 |
| PIP | 52 | 50 |
| PF | 28 | 25 |
| LL | 4 | 20 |
| LC | 9 | 9 |
| LPCT | 15 | 82 |
Model projected DET 117.14 – 111.87 MIA at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.3%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Prop G. Antetokounmpo · MIA
34 PTS · over 28.5D. Robinson · DET
17 MIN · 10 PTSCade Cunningham · DET
STAT · 36 MIN · 33 PTS · 8-20 FG · 3-8 3PTKlay Thompson · MIA
STAT · 20 MIN · 26 PTS · 10-17 FG · 6-11 3PTKevin Huerter · DET
STAT · 38 MIN · 20 PTS · 9-15 FG · 2-6 3PTBam Adebayo · MIA
STAT · 36 MIN · 20 PTS · 5-8 FG · 1-2 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · G. Antetokounmpo Under 28.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Pistons vs Heat pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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