Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans
Final · GCSEN
116–108Last shot · Herbert Jones makes running layup
At lock: projected DEN 122.24–113.09 NO
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 658684827
- Winner: Nuggets (79%)
- Spread: NO +10.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 234.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)12
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Jokic points | — | 26 | 26 | off 0 |
| T. Murphy III points | — | 19 | 0 | off -19 |
| Z. Williamson points | — | 21 | 24 | off 3 |
| J. Murray points | — | 26 | 23 | off -3 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: DEN vs NO
The model
How this number was built
DEN 122.24–113.09 NO · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexNO -7.3 vs DEN +3.4 · pred margin -11.2
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -5.9 vs +3.2 · back-to-back: NO · model NO 113.6–124.2 DEN
- Home field+2.8 pts to NO
- RecordNO 4-11 · DEN 8-4
- Market priorBlended 65% toward DEN -12.5 / total 235.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 29 | 27 | 30 | 30 | 116 |
| NO | 23 | 28 | 31 | 26 | 108 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 1:56109–101Zion Williamson makes free throw 1 of 1
FT4th Quarter 58.9110–101Nikola Jokic makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 58.9111–101
Nikola Jokic makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 39.5113–101
Christian Braun makes 3-foot running dunk (Jamal Murray assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 33.5113–103
Jeremiah Fears makes driving layup
- FT4th Quarter 25.3114–103
Cameron Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 19.6114–105
Herbert Jones makes running layup
- FT4th Quarter 15.0115–105
Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 15.0116–105
Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 8.4116–106
Jordan Poole makes free throw 1 of 3
- FT4th Quarter 8.4116–107
Jordan Poole makes free throw 2 of 3
- FT4th Quarter 8.4116–108
Jordan Poole makes free throw 3 of 3
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| DEN | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Gordon F · #32 | 33 | 11 | 4-6 | 1-1 | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +12 |
 C. Johnson F · #23 | 31 | 12 | 3-11 | 1-6 | 5-6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | +5 |
 N. Jokic C · #15 | 37 | 26 | 9-14 | 1-1 | 7-7 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | -1 |
 J. Murray G · #27 | 38 | 23 | 9-16 | 0-3 | 5-6 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +16 |
 C. Braun G · #0 | 28 | 17 | 6-14 | 1-3 | 4-5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +12 |
 M. Bagley III F · #3 | 13 | 7 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | +10 |
 S. Jones F · #21 | 12 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 |
 T. Brazile F · #7 | 16 | 5 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 |
 D. DeRozan G · #10 | 24 | 9 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
 T. Jones G · #5 | 10 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -8 |
 A. Diallo F · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Z. Nnaji F · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Hopkins F · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 116 | 42-80 | 4-16 | 28-37 | 47 | 29 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 39 | 24 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| DEN | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 42-80 | 37-89 |
| FG% | 53 | 42 |
| 3PT | 4-16 | 13-33 |
| 3P% | 25 | 39 |
| FT | 28-37 | 21-33 |
| FT% | 76 | 64 |
| REB | 47 | 38 |
| OR | 8 | 12 |
| DR | 39 | 26 |
| AST | 29 | 25 |
| STL | 9 | 6 |
| BLK | 5 | 8 |
| TO | 14 | 10 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 14 | 11 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 16 | 15 |
| FBPs | 15 | 19 |
| PIP | 62 | 44 |
| PF | 24 | 26 |
| LL | 15 | 3 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 93 | 2 |
Model projected DEN 122.24 – 113.09 NO at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge +0.5%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Prop J. Murray · DEN
23 PTS · under 24.5A. Gordon · DEN
33 MIN · 11 PTSH. Jones · NO
27 MIN · 10 PTSNikola Jokic · DEN
STAT · 37 MIN · 26 PTS · 9-14 FG · 1-1 3PTZion Williamson · NO
STAT · 31 MIN · 24 PTS · 9-16 FG · 2-4 3PTChristian Braun · DEN
STAT · 28 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-14 FG · 1-3 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · J. Murray Under 24.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Nuggets vs Pelicans pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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