Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns
Final · Suns Live
96–101Last shot · Miles Bridges misses heave jump shot
At lock: projected CHA 104.55–110.25 PHX
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 11, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2790869463
- Winner: Suns (68%)
- Spread: CHA +7.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Over 213.5 (59%)
- Score error (both teams)19
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Allen points | — | 16 | 14 | off -2 |
| D. Booker points | — | 26 | 30 | off 4 |
| B. Miller points | — | 20 | 0 | off -20 |
| M. Bridges points | — | 16 | 11 | off -5 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: CHA vs PHX
The model
How this number was built
CHA 104.55–110.25 PHX · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexPHX -1.0 vs CHA -5.3 · pred margin +6.2
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +0.1 vs -0.7 · back-to-back: PHX, CHA · model PHX 109.1–106.3 CHA
- Home field+2.8 pts to PHX
- RecordPHX 5-6 · CHA 4-8
- Market priorBlended 66% toward PHX -6.5 / total 214.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHA | 22 | 28 | 26 | 20 | 96 |
| PHX | 28 | 27 | 17 | 29 | 101 |
Scoring plays
3PT4th Quarter 3:4086–92Dillon Brooks makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Oso Ighodaro assists)
3PT4th Quarter 1:2189–92Naz Reid makes 25-foot three pointer (Moussa Diabate assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:0089–94
Devin Booker makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Oso Ighodaro assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 42.291–94
Moussa Diabate makes 1-foot layup (Grayson Allen assists)
- 3PT4th Quarter 23.891–97
Devin Booker makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 21.294–97
Royce O'Neale makes 28-foot three point jumper (Sion James assists)
- FT4th Quarter 21.295–97
Royce O'Neale makes free throw 1 of 1
- FT4th Quarter 18.495–98
Miles Bridges makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 18.495–99
Miles Bridges makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 11.195–100
Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 11.195–101
Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2.696–101
Moussa Diabate makes free throw 1 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| CHA | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 M. Diabate F · #14 | 32 | 7 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
 N. Reid C · #0 | 34 | 16 | 6-18 | 1-5 | 3-5 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | -10 |
 G. Allen G · #8 | 34 | 14 | 5-11 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 |
 C. White G · #3 | 20 | 21 | 8-16 | 2-7 | 3-3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 |
 S. James G · #4 | 32 | 3 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | +2 |
 R. O'Neale F · #00 | 22 | 7 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -1 |
 G. Williams F · #2 | 16 | 11 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +11 |
 T. Salaun F · #31 | 16 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 |
 R. Kalkbrenner C · #11 | 16 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -9 |
 C. Anderson G · #5 | 18 | 13 | 4-9 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 |
 P. Hall C · #16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 L. McNeeley G · #33 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 96 | 33-80 | 14-39 | 16-20 | 52 | 24 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 37 | 19 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CHA | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 33-80 | 38-92 |
| FG% | 41 | 41 |
| 3PT | 14-39 | 13-43 |
| 3P% | 36 | 30 |
| FT | 16-20 | 12-15 |
| FT% | 80 | 80 |
| REB | 52 | 31 |
| OR | 15 | 9 |
| DR | 37 | 22 |
| AST | 24 | 23 |
| STL | 4 | 11 |
| BLK | 4 | 4 |
| TO | 25 | 7 |
| TTO | 2 | 1 |
| ToTO | 27 | 8 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 38 | 11 |
| FBPs | 13 | 11 |
| PIP | 38 | 38 |
| PF | 19 | 20 |
| LL | 5 | 17 |
| LC | 18 | 18 |
| LPCT | 21 | 69 |
Model projected CHA 104.55 – 110.25 PHX at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge +0.0%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Prop D. Booker · PHX
30 PTS · over 24.5M. Diabate · CHA
32 MIN · 7 PTSD. Brooks · PHX
30 MIN · 15 PTSCoby White · CHA
STAT · 20 MIN · 21 PTS · 8-16 FG · 2-7 3PTNaz Reid · CHA
STAT · 34 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-18 FG · 1-5 3PTGrayson Allen · CHA
STAT · 34 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-11 FG · 4-8 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · D. Booker Under 24.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Hornets vs Suns pick result · Nov 12, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day