Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers
Final
112–123Last shot · Malachi Smith misses 27-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected TOR 107.09–115.34 PHI
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 11, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2606315654
- Winner: 76ers (76%)
- Spread: TOR +10.5 covers (58%)
- Total: Over 221.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)12
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Barrett points | — | 20 | 31 | off 11 |
| J. Brown points | — | 26 | 18 | off -8 |
| I. Quickley points | — | 17 | 26 | off 9 |
| T. Maxey points | — | 28 | 27 | off -1 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: TOR vs PHI
The model
How this number was built
TOR 107.09–115.34 PHI · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexPHI +2.7 vs TOR -1.6 · pred margin +6.6
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +0.7 vs +1.6 · back-to-back: PHI, TOR · model PHI 113.2–112.2 TOR
- Home field+2.8 pts to PHI
- RecordPHI 10-3 · TOR 5-7
- Market priorBlended 65% toward PHI -7.5 / total 222.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 33 | 27 | 27 | 25 | 112 |
| PHI | 24 | 36 | 36 | 27 | 123 |
Scoring plays
JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 4:43105–111Jamison Battle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)
JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 4:22105–114Anfernee Simons makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 3:14105–116
Joel Embiid makes 15-foot jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 3:02108–116
Immanuel Quickley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jakob Poeltl assists)
- FT4th Quarter 2:45108–117
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2:45108–118
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 2:02108–121
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dean Wade assists)
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 1:38108–123
Joel Embiid makes 17-foot jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)
- FT4th Quarter 1:31109–123
Immanuel Quickley makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:31110–123
Collin Murray-Boyles makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:31111–123
Collin Murray-Boyles makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 18.6112–123
Jaden Bradley makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| TOR | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 R. Barrett F · #9 | 37 | 31 | 13-20 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | -5 |
 C. Murray-Boyles F · #30 | 32 | 14 | 5-9 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -15 |
 J. Poeltl C · #19 | 25 | 9 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | +7 |
 I. Quickley G · #5 | 28 | 26 | 8-16 | 3-7 | 7-8 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -12 |
 J. Walter G · #14 | 32 | 6 | 2-8 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +10 |
 K. Anderson F · #13 | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 |
 J. Battle F · #77 | 25 | 13 | 5-9 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 |
 A. Graves F · #22 | 13 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -13 |
 M. Smith G · #18 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
 J. Shead G · #1 | 22 | 5 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -2 |
 J. Bradley G · #8 | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
 A. Martin G · #55 | 18 | 7 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -14 |
| Team | 112 | 40-84 | 14-37 | 18-24 | 36 | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 30 | 23 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| TOR | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 40-84 | 46-88 |
| FG% | 48 | 52 |
| 3PT | 14-37 | 13-30 |
| 3P% | 38 | 43 |
| FT | 18-24 | 18-23 |
| FT% | 75 | 78 |
| REB | 36 | 41 |
| OR | 6 | 11 |
| DR | 30 | 30 |
| AST | 26 | 31 |
| STL | 7 | 9 |
| BLK | 7 | 5 |
| TO | 12 | 10 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 12 | 10 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 24 | 14 |
| FBPs | 14 | 16 |
| PIP | 48 | 52 |
| PF | 23 | 19 |
| LL | 17 | 15 |
| LC | 25 | 25 |
| LPCT | 37 | 52 |
Model projected TOR 107.09 – 115.34 PHI at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge +0.6%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Prop J. Brown · PHI
18 PTS · under 22.5R. Barrett · TOR
37 MIN · 31 PTSD. Wade · PHI
34 MIN · 6 PTSTyrese Maxey · PHI
STAT · 35 MIN · 27 PTS · 8-13 FG · 1-4 3PTImmanuel Quickley · TOR
STAT · 28 MIN · 26 PTS · 8-16 FG · 3-7 3PTJoel Embiid · PHI
STAT · 28 MIN · 20 PTS · 7-17 FG · 0-3 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · J. Brown Under 22.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Raptors vs 76ers pick result · Nov 12, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day