Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers
Final · KUNP 16
108–118Last shot · Jared McCain misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot
At lock: projected OKC 114.05–111.96 POR
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 10, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2589538035
- Winner: Thunder (60%)
- Score error (both teams)13
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Mitchell points | — | 16 | 0 | off -16 |
| T. Camara points | — | 13 | 11 | off -2 |
| D. Avdija points | — | 23 | 28 | off 5 |
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander points | — | 30 | 31 | off 1 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: OKC vs POR
The model
How this number was built
OKC 114.05–111.96 POR · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexPOR +4.3 vs OKC +7.0 · pred margin +1.7
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +3.5 vs +5.3 · back-to-back: POR, OKC · model POR 112.9–112.9 OKC
- Home field+2.8 pts to POR
- RecordPOR 8-3 · OKC 8-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward POR -2.5 / total 224.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 32 | 18 | 35 | 23 | 108 |
| POR | 28 | 28 | 32 | 30 | 118 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 1:46101–108Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:46102–108
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2
SCORE4th Quarter 1:26102–110Damian Lillard makes two point shot
- 3PT4th Quarter 1:19105–110
Jared McCain makes 27-foot three point shot
- FT4th Quarter 1:00105–111
Damian Lillard makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:00105–112
Damian Lillard makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 50.6106–112
Kenrich Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNK SHOT4th Quarter 47.2106–114
Donovan Clingan makes dunk (Jrue Holiday assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 36.5106–116
Deni Avdija makes running dunk
- SCORE4th Quarter 24.4108–116
Isaiah Hartenstein makes dunk
- FT4th Quarter 18.9108–117
Toumani Camara makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 18.9108–118
Toumani Camara makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| OKC | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 I. Hartenstein C · #55 | 34 | 20 | 10-14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 5 | -4 |
 A. Mara C · #15 | 32 | 11 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -6 |
 A. Caruso G · #9 | 29 | 14 | 4-6 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | -11 |
 S. Gilgeous-Alexander G · #2 | 36 | 31 | 9-20 | 0-7 | 13-14 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 |
 J. McCain G · #3 | 31 | 10 | 3-14 | 2-10 | 2-4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -2 |
 K. Williams G · #34 | 26 | 11 | 3-10 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 |
 M. Peavy G · #16 | 12 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -8 |
 N. Clifford G · #18 | 16 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +3 |
 B. Stirtz G · #14 | 25 | 6 | 2-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -9 |
 B. Barnhizer F · #23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Dix G · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 108 | 37-88 | 11-36 | 23-28 | 43 | 19 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 14 | 29 | 22 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| OKC | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 37-88 | 37-81 |
| FG% | 42 | 46 |
| 3PT | 11-36 | 19-49 |
| 3P% | 31 | 39 |
| FT | 23-28 | 25-26 |
| FT% | 82 | 96 |
| REB | 43 | 39 |
| OR | 14 | 10 |
| DR | 29 | 29 |
| AST | 19 | 21 |
| STL | 10 | 9 |
| BLK | 3 | 8 |
| TO | 15 | 18 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 16 | 18 |
| TECH | 2 | 0 |
| TECH | 2 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 25 | 23 |
| FBPs | 7 | 8 |
| PIP | 42 | 36 |
| PF | 22 | 25 |
| LL | 9 | 12 |
| LC | 11 | 11 |
| LPCT | 52 | 43 |
Model projected OKC 114.05 – 111.96 POR at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.2%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Prop S. Gilgeous-Alexander · OKC
31 PTS · under 32.5I. Hartenstein · OKC
34 MIN · 20 PTST. Camara · POR
38 MIN · 14 PTSDeni Avdija · POR
STAT · 35 MIN · 28 PTS · 9-20 FG · 4-13 3PTSidy Cissoko · POR
STAT · 29 MIN · 19 PTS · 6-9 FG · 4-7 3PTJrue Holiday · POR
STAT · 30 MIN · 19 PTS · 5-12 FG · 5-8 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · S. Gilgeous-Alexander Under 32.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Thunder vs Trail Blazers pick result · Nov 11, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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