Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets
Final · ESPN
108–115Last shot · Graham Ike makes 7-foot floating jump shot
At lock: projected GS 108.01–114.08 HOU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 10, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2572760416
- Winner: Rockets (67%)
- Spread: HOU -5.5 covers (50%)
- Total: Over 222.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)2
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Lendeborg points | — | 21 | 25 | off 4 |
| K. Durant points | — | 24 | 20 | off -4 |
| A. Thompson points | — | 17 | 19 | off 2 |
| S. Curry points | — | 28 | 3 | off -25 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: GS vs HOU
The model
How this number was built
GS 108.01–114.08 HOU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexHOU +6.3 vs GS -2.9 · pred margin +7.8
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +5.3 vs +0.9 · back-to-back: HOU, GS · model HOU 114.5–108.0 GS
- Home field+2.8 pts to HOU
- RecordHOU 9-3 · GS 8-4
- Market priorBlended 65% toward HOU -6.5 / total 219.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 20 | 31 | 28 | 29 | 108 |
| HOU | 35 | 21 | 29 | 30 | 115 |
Scoring plays
SCORE4th Quarter 3:1595–111LJ Cryer makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Graham Ike assists)
- LAYUP SHOT4th Quarter 2:2797–111
Charles Bassey makes layup (LJ Cryer assists)
SCORE4th Quarter 2:0797–113Kevin Durant makes 10-foot step back jumpshot
- 3PT4th Quarter 1:56100–113
LJ Cryer makes 26-foot three pointer
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:32102–113
Charles Bassey makes two point shot
- FT4th Quarter 1:08102–114
Tari Eason makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:08102–115
Tari Eason makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 59.3103–115
Graham Ike makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 59.3104–115
Graham Ike makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 41.5106–115
Graham Ike makes 7-foot floating jump shot
- FT4th Quarter 3.6107–115
LJ Cryer makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 3.6108–115
LJ Cryer makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| GS | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 D. Green F · #23 | 27 | 7 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -20 |
 Y. Lendeborg F · #1 | 36 | 25 | 9-19 | 2-7 | 5-8 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | -15 |
 A. Horford C · #20 | 21 | 2 | 1-7 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 |
 S. Curry G · #30 | 6 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -9 |
 B. Podziemski G · #2 | 37 | 22 | 7-15 | 4-11 | 4-5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -17 |
 G. Niang F · #32 | 19 | 5 | 1-7 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -9 |
 G. Ike F · #45 | 4 | 4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +11 |
 M. Leons F · #33 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +11 |
 G. Santos F · #15 | 12 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +7 |
 C. Bassey C · #28 | 13 | 7 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 |
 D. Melton G · #8 | 25 | 11 | 3-7 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 |
 L. Cryer G · #18 | 18 | 13 | 4-9 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +18 |
 W. Richard G · #3 | 19 | 9 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 |
| Team | 108 | 36-88 | 17-51 | 19-26 | 48 | 22 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 32 | 20 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| GS | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 36-88 | 44-87 |
| FG% | 41 | 51 |
| 3PT | 17-51 | 13-36 |
| 3P% | 33 | 36 |
| FT | 19-26 | 14-19 |
| FT% | 73 | 74 |
| REB | 48 | 40 |
| OR | 16 | 9 |
| DR | 32 | 31 |
| AST | 22 | 26 |
| STL | 5 | 7 |
| BLK | 6 | 7 |
| TO | 13 | 11 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 13 | 12 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 1 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 23 | 18 |
| FBPs | 7 | 19 |
| PIP | 34 | 50 |
| PF | 20 | 23 |
| LL | 0 | 18 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 97 |
Model projected GS 108.01 – 114.08 HOU at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -2.0%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Prop A. Sengun · HOU
9 AST · over 6.5D. Green · GS
27 MIN · 7 PTSK. Durant · HOU
34 MIN · 20 PTSYaxel Lendeborg · GS
STAT · 36 MIN · 25 PTS · 9-19 FG · 2-7 3PTBrandin Podziemski · GS
STAT · 37 MIN · 22 PTS · 7-15 FG · 4-11 3PTAmen Thompson · HOU
STAT · 29 MIN · 19 PTS · 8-11 FG · 0-1 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · A. Sengun Under 6.5 ast
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Warriors vs Rockets pick result · Nov 11, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day