Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans
Final · DAZN (YES)
145–111Last shot · AJ Johnson makes two point shot
At lock: projected BKN 112.19–117.20 NO
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 10, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2673426130
- Winner: Pelicans (67%)
- Spread: NO -4.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 228.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)39
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. Williamson points | — | 21 | 29 | off 8 |
| M. Porter Jr. points | — | 23 | 22 | off -1 |
| T. Murphy III points | — | 19 | 0 | off -19 |
| J. Randle points | — | 21 | 17 | off -4 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: BKN vs NO
The model
How this number was built
BKN 112.19–117.20 NO · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexNO -7.3 vs BKN -5.9 · pred margin +2.2
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -5.9 vs -6.2 · back-to-back: NO, BKN · model NO 117.3–115.0 BKN
- Home field+2.8 pts to NO
- RecordNO 4-8 · BKN 3-8
- Market priorBlended 66% toward NO -2.5 / total 228.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKN | 39 | 44 | 24 | 38 | 145 |
| NO | 25 | 41 | 15 | 30 | 111 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 4:33137–99Danny Wolf makes free throw 1 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:45139–99
Drake Powell makes 1-foot two point shot (Danny Wolf assists)
- FT4th Quarter 3:18140–99
Drake Powell makes free throw 2 of 2
JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 3:00140–102Jaron Pierre Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)
- FT4th Quarter 2:36140–103
Bryce McGowens makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2:36140–104
Bryce McGowens makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:24142–104
Chaney Johnson makes driving layup
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 2:11142–107
Bryce McGowens makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julian Reese assists)
- 3PT4th Quarter 1:29145–107
Keon Ellis makes 25-foot three pointer
- FT4th Quarter 1:20145–108
Bryce McGowens makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:20145–109
Bryce McGowens makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 59.4145–111
AJ Johnson makes two point shot
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| BKN | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Randle F · #30 | 29 | 17 | 6-16 | 0-5 | 5-6 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +38 |
 M. Porter Jr. F · #17 | 28 | 22 | 7-14 | 4-10 | 4-4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | +25 |
 D. Wolf F · #2 | 29 | 10 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 2 | +17 |
 D. Sharpe C · #20 | 19 | 15 | 5-6 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +20 |
 E. Demin G · #8 | 23 | 22 | 5-8 | 4-6 | 8-10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +29 |
 J. Minott F · #00 | 7 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 |
 N. Clowney F · #21 | 19 | 16 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 4-5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +12 |
 C. Johnson F · #31 | 15 | 4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -2 |
 M. Wagner C · #13 | 19 | 16 | 6-8 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | +15 |
 T. Mann G · #14 | 18 | 6 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +9 |
 K. Ellis G · #1 | 26 | 11 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 3-3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +15 |
 D. Powell G · #4 | 7 | 6 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 |
| Team | 145 | 45-79 | 20-41 | 35-42 | 42 | 30 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 31 | 25 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| BKN | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 45-79 | 34-77 |
| FG% | 57 | 44 |
| 3PT | 20-41 | 12-30 |
| 3P% | 49 | 40 |
| FT | 35-42 | 31-38 |
| FT% | 83 | 82 |
| REB | 42 | 28 |
| OR | 11 | 9 |
| DR | 31 | 19 |
| AST | 30 | 20 |
| STL | 8 | 10 |
| BLK | 8 | 6 |
| TO | 13 | 16 |
| TTO | 2 | 0 |
| ToTO | 15 | 16 |
| TECH | 1 | 2 |
| TECH | 1 | 2 |
| FLAG | 0 | 1 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 19 | 23 |
| FBPs | 14 | 17 |
| PIP | 50 | 38 |
| PF | 25 | 29 |
| LL | 41 | 4 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 96 | 3 |
Model projected BKN 112.19 – 117.20 NO at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.5%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Prop J. Randle · BKN
17 PTS · under 20.5H. Jones · NO
25 MIN · 2 PTSZion Williamson · NO
STAT · 30 MIN · 29 PTS · 8-14 FG · 1-1 3PTMichael Porter Jr. · BKN
STAT · 28 MIN · 22 PTS · 7-14 FG · 4-10 3PTEgor Demin · BKN
STAT · 23 MIN · 22 PTS · 5-8 FG · 4-6 3PTNoah Clowney · BKN
STAT · 19 MIN · 16 PTS · 5-7 FG · 2-3 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · J. Randle Under 20.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Nets vs Pelicans pick result · Nov 11, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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