Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks
Final · Spectrum Sports Net
123–112Last shot · Pete Nance misses 27-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected LAL 121.22–110.33 MIL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 10, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2656648511
- Winner: Lakers (81%)
- Spread: MIL +10.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Under 233.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)3
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Herro points | — | 21 | 27 | off 6 |
| A. Reaves points | — | 24 | 18 | off -6 |
| L. Doncic points | — | 36 | 32 | off -4 |
| R. Rollins points | — | 15 | 8 | off -7 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: LAL vs MIL
The model
How this number was built
LAL 121.22–110.33 MIL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexMIL -8.3 vs LAL +5.0 · pred margin -13.1
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -8.0 vs +3.9 · back-to-back: MIL, LAL · model MIL 108.9–119.6 LAL
- Home field+2.8 pts to MIL
- RecordMIL 1-11 · LAL 11-2
- Market priorBlended 65% toward LAL -14.5 / total 230.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAL | 30 | 31 | 33 | 29 | 123 |
| MIL | 28 | 22 | 23 | 39 | 112 |
Scoring plays
3PT4th Quarter 2:20118–100Ousmane Dieng makes 26-foot three pointer
- FT4th Quarter 1:46118–101
Ousmane Dieng makes free throw 1 of 2
- 3PT4th Quarter 1:21118–104
Gary Trent Jr. makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
- FT4th Quarter 1:04118–105
Pete Nance makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 45.9118–108
Ousmane Dieng makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pete Nance assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 34.9118–110
Kasparas Jakucionis makes driving layup
FT4th Quarter 29.4119–110Bronny James makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 29.4120–110
Bronny James makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 23.9120–111
Kasparas Jakucionis makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 23.9120–112
Kasparas Jakucionis makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 15.3122–112
Bronny James makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 15.3123–112
Bronny James makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| LAL | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. LaRavia F · #12 | 21 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | +15 |
 W. Kessler C · #14 | 29 | 10 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 4 | +19 |
 M. Thybulle G · #4 | 23 | 8 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +4 |
 L. Doncic G · #77 | 32 | 32 | 10-25 | 5-12 | 7-10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | +21 |
 A. Reaves G · #15 | 25 | 18 | 6-10 | 1-3 | 5-5 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +23 |
 K. Looney F · #55 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -13 |
 J. Vanderbilt F · #2 | 9 | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +4 |
 S. Mamukelashvili F · #54 | 26 | 23 | 9-15 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +21 |
 Z. Williams F · #11 | 20 | 9 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +11 |
 A. Thiero F · #1 | 14 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -12 |
 C. Sexton G · #10 | 13 | 10 | 4-8 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 |
 B. James G · #9 | 4 | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -13 |
 J. Hardy G · #7 | 4 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -13 |
 C. Carr G · #43 | 13 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -13 |
 C. Cooper C | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 123 | 44-95 | 15-40 | 20-23 | 48 | 32 | 17 | 14 | 4 | 19 | 29 | 24 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| LAL | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 44-95 | 35-81 |
| FG% | 46 | 43 |
| 3PT | 15-40 | 13-38 |
| 3P% | 38 | 34 |
| FT | 20-23 | 29-33 |
| FT% | 87 | 88 |
| REB | 48 | 40 |
| OR | 19 | 14 |
| DR | 29 | 26 |
| AST | 32 | 25 |
| STL | 14 | 10 |
| BLK | 4 | 7 |
| TO | 17 | 17 |
| TTO | 1 | 1 |
| ToTO | 18 | 18 |
| TECH | 2 | 2 |
| TECH | 2 | 2 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 22 | 28 |
| FBPs | 22 | 12 |
| PIP | 48 | 40 |
| PF | 24 | 23 |
| LL | 24 | 5 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 92 | 6 |
Model projected LAL 121.22 – 110.33 MIL at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.4%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Prop A. Reaves · LAL
18 PTS · under 22.5J. LaRavia · LAL
21 MIN · 0-4 FGK. Kuzma · MIL
24 MIN · 9 PTSLuka Doncic · LAL
STAT · 32 MIN · 32 PTS · 10-25 FG · 5-12 3PTTyler Herro · MIL
STAT · 35 MIN · 27 PTS · 8-16 FG · 2-7 3PTJaime Jaquez Jr. · MIL
STAT · 30 MIN · 25 PTS · 7-16 FG · 2-7 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · A. Reaves Under 22.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Lakers vs Bucks pick result · Nov 11, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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