Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors
Final
98–93Last shot · RJ Barrett misses two point shot
At lock: projected BOS 111.86–105.92 TOR
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 10, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2874904653
- Winner: Celtics (67%)
- Spread: TOR +6.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 216.5 (60%)
- Score error (both teams)28
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. White points | — | 15 | 19 | off 4 |
| S. Barnes points | — | 20 | 0 | off -20 |
| J. Tatum points | — | 24 | 24 | off 0 |
| I. Quickley points | — | 17 | 11 | off -6 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: BOS vs TOR
The model
How this number was built
BOS 111.86–105.92 TOR · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexTOR -1.6 vs BOS +7.5 · pred margin -4.8
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +1.6 vs +7.0 · back-to-back: TOR, BOS · model TOR 107.4–111.2 BOS
- Home field+2.8 pts to TOR
- RecordTOR 5-6 · BOS 10-2
- Market priorBlended 66% toward BOS -4.5 / total 215.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 29 | 25 | 21 | 23 | 98 |
| TOR | 38 | 23 | 19 | 13 | 93 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 4:2185–89Jayson Tatum makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2:4788–89
Neemias Queta makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:5590–89
Jayson Tatum makes 12-foot two point shot (Derrick White assists)
SCORE4th Quarter 1:3990–91RJ Barrett makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Jakob Poeltl assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:1490–93
RJ Barrett makes 2-foot running dunk (Jamal Shead assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 54.192–93
Neemias Queta makes 2-foot dunk (Jayson Tatum assists)
- FT4th Quarter 25.293–93
Jayson Tatum makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 25.294–93
Jayson Tatum makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 15.195–93
Neemias Queta makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 15.196–93
Neemias Queta makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 13.497–93
Sam Hauser makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 13.498–93
Sam Hauser makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| BOS | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Tatum F · #0 | 38 | 24 | 6-21 | 2-11 | 10-12 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +9 |
 L. Garza C · #52 | 11 | 5 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 |
 N. Queta C · #88 | 31 | 11 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 6-8 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 2 | +27 |
 D. White G · #9 | 38 | 19 | 7-15 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +18 |
 B. Scheierman G · #55 | 29 | 9 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | +18 |
 S. Hauser F · #30 | 24 | 8 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 2 | +1 |
 M. Robinson C · #4 | 11 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -17 |
 P. Pritchard G · #11 | 31 | 14 | 5-13 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -17 |
 J. Walsh G · #27 | 18 | 6 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | +3 |
 H. Gonzalez G · #28 | 8 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -12 |
 D. Mitchell F · #20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Cenac Jr. F · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Conley G · #45 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 R. Harper Jr. G · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 98 | 30-73 | 14-40 | 24-28 | 45 | 22 | 18 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 36 | 19 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| BOS | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 30-73 | 32-85 |
| FG% | 41 | 38 |
| 3PT | 14-40 | 16-43 |
| 3P% | 35 | 37 |
| FT | 24-28 | 13-18 |
| FT% | 86 | 72 |
| REB | 45 | 42 |
| OR | 9 | 12 |
| DR | 36 | 30 |
| AST | 22 | 26 |
| STL | 7 | 9 |
| BLK | 10 | 4 |
| TO | 18 | 14 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 18 | 15 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 1 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 18 | 19 |
| FBPs | 6 | 18 |
| PIP | 20 | 26 |
| PF | 19 | 28 |
| LL | 5 | 22 |
| LC | 10 | 10 |
| LPCT | 16 | 78 |
Model projected BOS 111.86 – 105.92 TOR at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -0.0%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Prop R. Barrett · TOR
12 PTS · under 23.5J. Tatum · BOS
38 MIN · 24 PTSDerrick White · BOS
STAT · 38 MIN · 19 PTS · 7-15 FG · 3-7 3PTJa'Kobe Walter · TOR
STAT · 35 MIN · 17 PTS · 5-11 FG · 5-10 3PTPayton Pritchard · BOS
STAT · 31 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-13 FG · 2-7 3PTAllen Graves · TOR
STAT · 18 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-8 FG · 3-4 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · R. Barrett Under 23.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Celtics vs Raptors pick result · Nov 11, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day