Orlando Magic at Sacramento Kings
Final
107–100Last shot · Zach LaVine makes driving layup
At lock: projected ORL 114.67–109.60 SAC
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 9, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2673573225
- Winner: Magic (66%)
- Spread: SAC +5.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 221.5 (66%)
- Score error (both teams)18
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Murray points | — | 13 | 11 | off -2 |
| D. Acuff Jr. points | — | 25 | 29 | off 4 |
| F. Wagner points | — | 21 | 33 | off 12 |
| D. Bane points | — | 19 | 15 | off -4 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: ORL vs SAC
The model
How this number was built
ORL 114.67–109.60 SAC · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexSAC -9.6 vs ORL -0.3 · pred margin -5.7
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -7.7 vs -1.4 · back-to-back: SAC, ORL · model SAC 110.5–115.1 ORL
- Home field+2.8 pts to SAC
- RecordSAC 1-10 · ORL 3-7
- Market priorBlended 66% toward ORL -5.5 / total 222.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORL | 34 | 23 | 27 | 23 | 107 |
| SAC | 27 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 100 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 5:2399–87Franz Wagner makes free throw 1 of 1
3PT4th Quarter 4:3599–90Darius Acuff Jr. makes 25-foot three pointer
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 3:25101–90
Wendell Carter Jr. makes 14-foot jumper (Desmond Bane assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:15103–90
Anthony Black makes 6-foot pullup jump shot (Franz Wagner assists)
- FT4th Quarter 1:52103–91
Zach LaVine makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:52103–92
Zach LaVine makes free throw 2 of 2
- 3PT4th Quarter 1:10103–95
Zach LaVine makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
- 3PT4th Quarter 44.7103–98
Zach LaVine makes 26-foot three pointer (Darius Acuff Jr. assists)
- FT4th Quarter 20.6104–98
Franz Wagner makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 20.6105–98
Franz Wagner makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 6.4107–98
Wendell Carter Jr. makes 6-foot running dunk (Desmond Bane assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 0.5107–100
Zach LaVine makes driving layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| ORL | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Cain F · #8 | 20 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +7 |
 F. Wagner F · #22 | 38 | 33 | 11-23 | 1-5 | 10-10 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | +8 |
 W. Carter Jr. C · #34 | 33 | 8 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 4 | +14 |
 D. Bane G · #3 | 36 | 15 | 5-19 | 4-13 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | -2 |
 A. Black G · #0 | 33 | 26 | 10-17 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +9 |
 N. Vucevic C · #9 | 18 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +8 |
 G. Bitadze C · #35 | 15 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -9 |
 J. Carter G · #2 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -12 |
 A. Morales G · #30 | 29 | 7 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | +10 |
 J. Richardson G · #11 | 15 | 6 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +2 |
 C. Castleton C · #14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 107 | 40-90 | 10-37 | 17-18 | 48 | 21 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 36 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ORL | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 40-90 | 33-75 |
| FG% | 44 | 44 |
| 3PT | 10-37 | 16-34 |
| 3P% | 27 | 47 |
| FT | 17-18 | 18-22 |
| FT% | 94 | 82 |
| REB | 48 | 34 |
| OR | 12 | 4 |
| DR | 36 | 30 |
| AST | 21 | 19 |
| STL | 9 | 8 |
| BLK | 4 | 7 |
| TO | 12 | 20 |
| TTO | 2 | 1 |
| ToTO | 14 | 21 |
| TECH | 2 | 0 |
| TECH | 2 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 20 | 33 |
| FBPs | 17 | 11 |
| PIP | 58 | 28 |
| PF | 18 | 16 |
| LL | 14 | 5 |
| LC | 5 | 5 |
| LPCT | 83 | 11 |
At lock ORL 114.67–109.60 SAC · 2.8 pts over 221.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp F. Wagner · ORL
33 PTS · over 23.5J. Cain · ORL
20 MIN · 5 PTSD. Sabonis · SAC
24 MIN · 0-2 FGZach LaVine · SAC
STAT · 33 MIN · 31 PTS · 10-16 FG · 6-9 3PTDarius Acuff Jr. · SAC
STAT · 40 MIN · 29 PTS · 10-21 FG · 4-9 3PTAnthony Black · ORL
STAT · 33 MIN · 26 PTS · 10-17 FG · 2-5 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · F. Wagner Under 23.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Magic vs Kings pick result · Nov 10, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 221.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day