Miami Heat at Utah Jazz
Final · KJZZ-TV
115–109Last shot · Brice Sensabaugh makes driving layup (Svi Mykhailiuk assists)
At lock: projected MIA 119.79–111.97 UTAH
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 9, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2690350844
- Winner: Heat (75%)
- Spread: UTAH +9.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 228.5 (68%)
- Score error (both teams)8
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Mitchell points | — | 12 | 19 | off 7 |
| D. Peterson points | — | 14 | 25 | off 11 |
| K. George points | — | 23 | 0 | off -23 |
| B. Adebayo points | — | 20 | 11 | off -9 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MIA vs UTAH
The model
How this number was built
MIA 119.79–111.97 UTAH · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexUTAH -7.5 vs MIA +1.3 · pred margin -7.6
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -7.3 vs -0.4 · back-to-back: UTAH, MIA · model UTAH 116.9–122.2 MIA
- Home field+2.8 pts to UTAH
- RecordUTAH 1-10 · MIA 5-6
- Market priorBlended 66% toward MIA -8.5 / total 227.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 29 | 35 | 28 | 23 | 115 |
| UTAH | 25 | 29 | 18 | 37 | 109 |
Scoring plays
LAYUP SHOT4th Quarter 3:43109–97Giannis Antetokounmpo makes layup
SCORE4th Quarter 2:51109–99Ace Bailey makes 1-foot dunk (Josh Green assists)
- FT4th Quarter 2:36110–99
Bam Adebayo makes free throw 1 of 2
- 3PT4th Quarter 2:22110–102
Ace Bailey makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Svi Mykhailiuk assists)
- FT4th Quarter 1:57110–103
Isaiah Collier makes free throw 1 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:37112–103
Pelle Larsson makes 7-foot floating jump shot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:25112–105
Svi Mykhailiuk makes driving layup (Isaiah Collier assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 47.7112–107
Svi Mykhailiuk makes 12-foot two point shot (Isaiah Collier assists)
- FT4th Quarter 18.6113–107
Davion Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 9.3114–107
Pelle Larsson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 9.3115–107
Pelle Larsson makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 2.2115–109
Brice Sensabaugh makes driving layup (Svi Mykhailiuk assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MIA | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 G. Antetokounmpo F · #7 | 31 | 30 | 12-21 | 1-2 | 5-9 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 3 | +11 |
 B. Adebayo C · #13 | 37 | 11 | 1-8 | 0-2 | 9-12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 0 |
 K. Thompson G · #11 | 30 | 11 | 3-13 | 2-10 | 3-3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +9 |
 D. Mitchell G · #2 | 38 | 19 | 5-13 | 3-7 | 6-8 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -6 |
 P. Larsson G · #9 | 31 | 14 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 4-4 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +3 |
 A. Wiggins F · #22 | 19 | 13 | 5-8 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 B. Portis F · #95 | 17 | 5 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +4 |
 S. Fontecchio F · #0 | 7 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 |
 M. Gardner F · #15 | 10 | 4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 R. Conwell G · #4 | 21 | 5 | 1-7 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +7 |
 K. Johnson F · #16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Jovic F · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Richards C · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Hardaway Jr. G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Smith G · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 115 | 35-89 | 12-41 | 33-44 | 40 | 24 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 20 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MIA | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 35-89 | 41-84 |
| FG% | 39 | 49 |
| 3PT | 12-41 | 13-33 |
| 3P% | 29 | 39 |
| FT | 33-44 | 14-22 |
| FT% | 75 | 64 |
| REB | 40 | 49 |
| OR | 8 | 11 |
| DR | 32 | 38 |
| AST | 24 | 28 |
| STL | 8 | 6 |
| BLK | 4 | 5 |
| TO | 8 | 18 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 8 | 19 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 16 | 25 |
| FBPs | 9 | 17 |
| PIP | 32 | 50 |
| PF | 20 | 30 |
| LL | 23 | 7 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 90 | 8 |
At lock MIA 119.79–111.97 UTAH · MIA by 7.8 pts vs UTAH +9.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock · Play of the Day: UTAH +9.5 locked at 56% when posted
HitProp L. Markkanen · UTAH
0 · under 22.5G. Antetokounmpo · MIA
31 MIN · 30 PTSJ. Hayes · UTAH
17 MIN · 6 PTSDarryn Peterson · UTAH
STAT · 31 MIN · 25 PTS · 10-19 FG · 4-9 3PTAce Bailey · UTAH
STAT · 35 MIN · 23 PTS · 10-15 FG · 3-5 3PTDavion Mitchell · MIA
STAT · 38 MIN · 19 PTS · 5-13 FG · 3-7 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · L. Markkanen Under 22.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Heat vs Jazz pick result · Nov 10, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UTAH +9.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day