Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers
Final · NBC
123–101Last shot · Anfernee Simons makes 28-foot three pointer (Labaron Philon Jr. assists)
At lock: projected BOS 110.63–108.26 PHI
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 9, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2723906082
- Winner: Celtics (58%)
- Spread: BOS -1.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 218.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)20
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Tatum points | — | 24 | 21 | off -3 |
| J. Brown points | — | 26 | 13 | off -13 |
| D. White points | — | 15 | 5 | off -10 |
| T. Maxey points | — | 28 | 24 | off -4 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: BOS vs PHI
The model
How this number was built
BOS 110.63–108.26 PHI · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexPHI +2.7 vs BOS +7.5 · pred margin -2.0
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +0.7 vs +7.0 · back-to-back: PHI, BOS · model PHI 106.9–111.6 BOS
- Home field+2.8 pts to PHI
- RecordPHI 9-3 · BOS 9-2
- Market priorBlended 66% toward BOS -1.5 / total 216.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 30 | 32 | 29 | 32 | 123 |
| PHI | 23 | 28 | 31 | 19 | 101 |
Scoring plays
SCORE4th Quarter 4:59113–89Hugo Gonzalez makes 1-foot layup (Neemias Queta assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 4:23115–89
Jordan Walsh makes dunk (Baylor Scheierman assists)
- FT4th Quarter 4:23116–89
Jordan Walsh makes free throw 1 of 1
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:55118–89
Jordan Walsh makes 1-foot two point shot (Baylor Scheierman assists)
SCORE4th Quarter 2:20118–91Anfernee Simons makes running layup (Rayan Rupert assists)
- FT4th Quarter 2:07118–92
Labaron Philon Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2:07118–93
Labaron Philon Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:48118–95
Anfernee Simons makes running layup (Labaron Philon Jr. assists)
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 54.7118–98
Anfernee Simons makes 25-foot three point jumper (Labaron Philon Jr. assists)
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 34.8121–98
Hugo Gonzalez makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordan Walsh assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 27.9123–98
Hugo Gonzalez makes 1-foot driving dunk
- 3PT4th Quarter 22.1123–101
Anfernee Simons makes 28-foot three pointer (Labaron Philon Jr. assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| BOS | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 P. George F · #13 | 30 | 36 | 14-22 | 6-11 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +17 |
 J. Tatum F · #0 | 32 | 21 | 8-17 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | +6 |
 N. Queta C · #88 | 22 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | +16 |
 D. White G · #9 | 22 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +6 |
 J. Walsh G · #27 | 19 | 8 | 3-7 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -6 |
 S. Hauser F · #30 | 18 | 12 | 4-6 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +24 |
 L. Garza C · #52 | 9 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 |
 M. Robinson C · #4 | 17 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +8 |
 P. Pritchard G · #11 | 30 | 18 | 7-15 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +26 |
 R. Harper Jr. G · #8 | 4 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -5 |
 B. Scheierman G · #55 | 18 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +3 |
 H. Gonzalez G · #28 | 19 | 10 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +17 |
 D. Mitchell F · #20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Cenac Jr. F · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Conley G · #45 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 123 | 48-95 | 22-49 | 5-5 | 43 | 28 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 35 | 19 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| BOS | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 48-95 | 33-79 |
| FG% | 51 | 42 |
| 3PT | 22-49 | 11-37 |
| 3P% | 45 | 30 |
| FT | 5-5 | 24-28 |
| FT% | 100 | 86 |
| REB | 43 | 42 |
| OR | 8 | 8 |
| DR | 35 | 34 |
| AST | 28 | 23 |
| STL | 6 | 4 |
| BLK | 4 | 3 |
| TO | 8 | 13 |
| TTO | 1 | 1 |
| ToTO | 9 | 14 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 9 | 21 |
| FBPs | 10 | 21 |
| PIP | 46 | 32 |
| PF | 19 | 13 |
| LL | 29 | 1 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 95 | 1 |
Grok Expert vs the model
Two separate picks, each graded on its own record.
Why Grok Expert likes it: Cleared 23.5 in 9 of 11 games this season at 26.9 PPG on 36 minutes a night; healthy and starting vs BOS.
At lock BOS 110.63–108.26 PHI · BOS by 2.4 pts vs BOS -1.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp J. Tatum · BOS
21 PTS · under 26.5P. George · BOS
30 MIN · 36 PTSL. James · PHI
29 MIN · 11 PTSTyrese Maxey · PHI
STAT · 34 MIN · 24 PTS · 8-12 FG · 3-4 3PTPayton Pritchard · BOS
STAT · 30 MIN · 18 PTS · 7-15 FG · 4-8 3PTAnfernee Simons · PHI
STAT · 18 MIN · 17 PTS · 7-13 FG · 3-7 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · J. Tatum Under 26.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Celtics vs 76ers pick result · Nov 10, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is BOS -1.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day