New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors
Final · NBA TV
87–138Last shot · Julian Reese misses 10-foot two point shot
At lock: projected NO 111.73–120.02 GS
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 8, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2724053177
- Winner: Warriors (76%)
- Spread: NO +9.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 231.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)43
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Murphy III points | — | 19 | 0 | off -19 |
| Y. Lendeborg points | — | 21 | 23 | off 2 |
| Z. Williamson points | — | 21 | 0 | off -21 |
| S. Curry points | — | 28 | 25 | off -3 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: NO vs GS
The model
How this number was built
NO 111.73–120.02 GS · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexGS -2.9 vs NO -7.3 · pred margin +9.6
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +0.9 vs -5.9 · back-to-back: GS, NO · model GS 121.6–112.5 NO
- Home field+2.8 pts to GS
- RecordGS 8-3 · NO 4-7
- Market priorBlended 66% toward GS -10.5 / total 228.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 20 | 23 | 22 | 22 | 87 |
| GS | 35 | 37 | 40 | 26 | 138 |
Scoring plays
JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 6:5879–124Bryce McGowens makes 23-foot three point jumper (AJ Johnson assists)
JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 5:3879–127Georges Niang makes 28-foot three point jumper (De'Anthony Melton assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 5:1981–127
Julian Reese makes 6-foot jump bank shot (AJ Johnson assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 5:0583–127
Bryce McGowens makes 3-foot running dunk
- SCORE4th Quarter 4:0783–129
Charles Bassey makes 7-foot floating jump shot (LJ Cryer assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:3083–131
Graham Ike makes two point shot
- DUNK SHOT4th Quarter 3:0683–133
Charles Bassey makes 2-foot dunk (LJ Cryer assists)
- FT4th Quarter 2:4684–133
Jordan Poole makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2:4685–133
Jordan Poole makes free throw 2 of 2
- TIP SHOT4th Quarter 2:1985–135
Charles Bassey makes tip shot
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:0187–135
Bennedict Mathurin makes two point shot (AJ Johnson assists)
- 3PT4th Quarter 1:1587–138
LJ Cryer makes 26-foot three pointer
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| NO | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 H. Jones F · #2 | 24 | 10 | 4-9 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -21 |
 S. Bey F · #41 | 24 | 9 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -19 |
 K. Matkovic F · #17 | 17 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -18 |
 D. Murray G · #5 | 18 | 12 | 5-10 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -21 |
 J. Fears G · #0 | 29 | 11 | 4-12 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -33 |
 J. Reese F · #13 | 9 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 |
 D. Queen C · #22 | 21 | 16 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 8-10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -30 |
 J. Poole G · #3 | 34 | 7 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -47 |
 B. McGowens G · #11 | 28 | 8 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -27 |
 B. Mathurin G · #24 | 24 | 6 | 1-9 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -32 |
 A. Johnson G · #14 | 12 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -4 |
 D. Jordan C · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 87 | 29-80 | 8-28 | 21-24 | 31 | 21 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 23 | 17 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NO | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 29-80 | 50-91 |
| FG% | 36 | 55 |
| 3PT | 8-28 | 21-44 |
| 3P% | 29 | 48 |
| FT | 21-24 | 17-19 |
| FT% | 88 | 89 |
| REB | 31 | 50 |
| OR | 8 | 11 |
| DR | 23 | 39 |
| AST | 21 | 37 |
| STL | 2 | 6 |
| BLK | 8 | 9 |
| TO | 13 | 11 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 13 | 11 |
| TECH | 4 | 1 |
| TECH | 4 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 13 | 9 |
| FBPs | 6 | 17 |
| PIP | 38 | 52 |
| PF | 17 | 18 |
| LL | 1 | 51 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 0 | 99 |
Grok Expert vs the model
Two separate picks, each graded on its own record.
Why Grok Expert likes it: Draymond Green has scored 5 or fewer in all 8 games this season (2.9 PPG on about 3 shots a game) as a pass-first starter, with 13 and 11 assists in his last two.
At lock NO 111.73–120.02 GS · GS by 8.3 pts vs NO +9.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock · Play of the Day: NO +9.5 locked at 56% when posted
MissProp S. Curry · GS
25 PTS · under 28.5H. Jones · NO
24 MIN · 10 PTSD. Green · GS
21 MIN · 2 PTSBrandin Podziemski · GS
STAT · 26 MIN · 25 PTS · 10-19 FG · 5-11 3PTYaxel Lendeborg · GS
STAT · 27 MIN · 23 PTS · 8-10 FG · 4-4 3PTDerik Queen · NO
STAT · 21 MIN · 16 PTS · 4-8 FG · 0-1 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · S. Curry Under 28.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Pelicans vs Warriors pick result · Nov 9, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is NO +9.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day