San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns
Final · Arizona's Family 3TV
122–96Last shot · Rasheer Fleming misses 26-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected SA 117.83–110.29 PHX
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 8, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2707275558
- Winner: Spurs (74%)
- Spread: PHX +8.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Under 228.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)19
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Vassell points | — | 13 | 0 | off -13 |
| D. Fox points | — | 17 | 15 | off -2 |
| D. Booker points | — | 26 | 32 | off 6 |
| M. Bridges points | — | 17 | 7 | off -10 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: SA vs PHX
The model
How this number was built
SA 117.83–110.29 PHX · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexPHX -1.0 vs SA +10.2 · pred margin -9.0
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +0.1 vs +8.4 · back-to-back: PHX, SA · model PHX 109.3–116.1 SA
- Home field+2.8 pts to PHX
- RecordPHX 3-6 · SA 9-2
- Market priorBlended 66% toward SA -9.5 / total 225.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA | 31 | 30 | 32 | 29 | 122 |
| PHX | 25 | 21 | 22 | 28 | 96 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 4:55113–86Harrison Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 4:55114–86
Harrison Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2
TIP SHOT4th Quarter 4:39114–88Rasheer Fleming makes tip shot
- XP4th Quarter 3:21114–90
Jamaree Bouyea makes 2-foot dunk (Pat Spencer assists)
- FT4th Quarter 2:44115–90
Carter Bryant makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2:44116–90
Carter Bryant makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:19118–90
David Jones Garcia makes running layup (Tarris Reed Jr. assists)
- XP4th Quarter 2:00118–92
Pat Spencer makes two point shot
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:45120–92
Tarris Reed Jr. makes two point shot
- LAYUP SHOT4th Quarter 1:32120–94
Duop Reath makes layup (Pat Spencer assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:07120–96
Koa Peat makes driving layup (Jamaree Bouyea assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 51.0122–96
Tarris Reed Jr. makes dunk (Jordan McLaughlin assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| SA | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Champagnie F · #30 | 27 | 11 | 4-11 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 |
 V. Wembanyama F · #1 | 25 | 40 | 15-19 | 2-3 | 8-10 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 2 | +30 |
 D. Fox G · #4 | 29 | 15 | 5-8 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | +20 |
 S. Castle G · #5 | 30 | 4 | 2-9 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +13 |
 D. Harper G · #2 | 26 | 17 | 7-10 | 0-2 | 3-5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +30 |
 H. Barnes F · #40 | 21 | 11 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 3-3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +22 |
 K. Johnson F · #3 | 26 | 4 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +30 |
 D. Jones Garcia F · #25 | 8 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 |
 C. Bryant F · #11 | 14 | 8 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -8 |
 L. Kornet C · #7 | 13 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 |
 T. Reed Jr. C · #10 | 9 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 |
 J. McLaughlin G · #0 | 11 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 |
| Team | 122 | 46-89 | 11-30 | 19-25 | 54 | 30 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 40 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SA | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 46-89 | 35-89 |
| FG% | 52 | 39 |
| 3PT | 11-30 | 9-26 |
| 3P% | 37 | 35 |
| FT | 19-25 | 17-19 |
| FT% | 76 | 89 |
| REB | 54 | 35 |
| OR | 14 | 11 |
| DR | 40 | 24 |
| AST | 30 | 21 |
| STL | 6 | 3 |
| BLK | 11 | 6 |
| TO | 9 | 7 |
| TTO | 2 | 0 |
| ToTO | 11 | 7 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 10 | 11 |
| FBPs | 23 | 10 |
| PIP | 62 | 48 |
| PF | 18 | 17 |
| LL | 34 | 1 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 97 | 1 |
At lock SA 117.83–110.29 PHX · SA by 7.5 pts vs PHX +8.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp V. Wembanyama · SA
11 REB · under 11.5J. Champagnie · SA
27 MIN · 11 PTSD. Brooks · PHX
26 MIN · 7 PTSDevin Booker · PHX
STAT · 29 MIN · 32 PTS · 10-17 FG · 3-5 3PTDylan Harper · SA
STAT · 26 MIN · 17 PTS · 7-10 FG · 0-2 3PTDe'Aaron Fox · SA
STAT · 29 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-8 FG · 2-4 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · V. Wembanyama Under 11.5 reb
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Spurs vs Suns pick result · Nov 9, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is PHX +8.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day