Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors
Final · DAZN MEM
118–102Last shot · Allen Graves misses 1-foot two point shot
At lock: projected MEM 113.24–117.84 TOR
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 8, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2925384605
- Winner: Raptors (65%)
- Spread: TOR -3.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 230.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)20
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Barnes points | — | 20 | 0 | off -20 |
| I. Quickley points | — | 17 | 0 | off -17 |
| C. Boozer points | — | 16 | 22 | off 6 |
| J. Grant points | — | 15 | 17 | off 2 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MEM vs TOR
The model
How this number was built
MEM 113.24–117.84 TOR · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexTOR -1.6 vs MEM -0.0 · pred margin -0.1
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +1.6 vs -2.1 · back-to-back: TOR, MEM · model TOR 118.2–112.5 MEM
- Home field+2.8 pts to TOR
- RecordTOR 5-5 · MEM 7-3
- Market priorBlended 66% toward MEM -1.5 / total 225.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM | 25 | 34 | 30 | 29 | 118 |
| TOR | 26 | 27 | 28 | 21 | 102 |
Scoring plays
JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 7:40101–95Jamal Shead makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jamison Battle assists)
SCORE4th Quarter 7:28103–95Cameron Boozer makes 19-foot driving floating jump shot
- LAYUP SHOT4th Quarter 6:47103–97
Jakob Poeltl makes layup
- 3PT4th Quarter 6:26106–97
Ty Jerome makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 5:42109–97
Jaylen Wells makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cameron Boozer assists)
- FT4th Quarter 4:27110–97
Cameron Boozer makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 4:27111–97
Cameron Boozer makes free throw 2 of 2
- HOOK SHOT4th Quarter 3:49113–97
Zach Edey makes 6-foot hook shot (Cameron Boozer assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:03113–99
Ja'Kobe Walter makes 10-foot floating jump shot (Jamal Shead assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:43115–99
Cameron Boozer makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 1:33115–102
RJ Barrett makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 1:14118–102
Cedric Coward makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ty Jerome assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MEM | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 C. Coward F · #23 | 28 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +19 |
 C. Boozer F · #27 | 33 | 22 | 9-16 | 0-5 | 4-5 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +17 |
 J. Wells F · #0 | 26 | 14 | 5-8 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +21 |
 Z. Edey C · #14 | 23 | 8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 3 | +11 |
 T. Jerome G · #2 | 32 | 27 | 9-19 | 5-11 | 4-4 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | +14 |
 J. Grant F · #3 | 22 | 17 | 6-9 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
 K. Murray F · #17 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 O. Prosper F · #18 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 T. Hendricks F · #22 | 16 | 9 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +4 |
 G. Jackson F · #45 | 17 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -6 |
 Q. Post C · #41 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
 C. Spencer G · #24 | 17 | 7 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +3 |
 J. Small G · #10 | 24 | 9 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 |
| Team | 118 | 42-79 | 16-34 | 18-19 | 44 | 27 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32 | 22 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MEM | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 42-79 | 39-90 |
| FG% | 53 | 43 |
| 3PT | 16-34 | 13-38 |
| 3P% | 47 | 34 |
| FT | 18-19 | 11-17 |
| FT% | 95 | 65 |
| REB | 44 | 34 |
| OR | 12 | 15 |
| DR | 32 | 19 |
| AST | 27 | 27 |
| STL | 7 | 7 |
| BLK | 5 | 7 |
| TO | 17 | 13 |
| TTO | 1 | 1 |
| ToTO | 18 | 14 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 16 | 26 |
| FBPs | 12 | 4 |
| PIP | 42 | 50 |
| PF | 22 | 17 |
| LL | 16 | 6 |
| LC | 13 | 13 |
| LPCT | 78 | 14 |
At lock MEM 113.24–117.84 TOR · TOR by 4.6 pts vs TOR -3.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp C. Murray-Boyles · TOR
0 · under 8.5C. Coward · MEM
28 MIN · 3 PTSK. Anderson · TOR
16 MIN · 6 PTSTy Jerome · MEM
STAT · 32 MIN · 27 PTS · 9-19 FG · 5-11 3PTCameron Boozer · MEM
STAT · 33 MIN · 22 PTS · 9-16 FG · 0-5 3PTJamal Shead · TOR
STAT · 36 MIN · 20 PTS · 6-17 FG · 4-10 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · C. Murray-Boyles Under 8.5 reb
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Grizzlies vs Raptors pick result · Nov 9, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is TOR -3.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day