Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Hornets
Final · DAZN CLE
112–124Last shot · Meleek Thomas misses driving layup
At lock: projected CLE 112.39–104.49 CHA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 8, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2824718891
- Winner: Cavaliers (75%)
- Spread: CHA +9.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Over 215.5 (59%)
- Score error (both teams)20
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Harden points | — | 21 | 11 | off -10 |
| D. Mitchell points | — | 26 | 11 | off -15 |
| B. Miller points | — | 20 | 0 | off -20 |
| G. Allen points | — | 15 | 27 | off 12 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: CLE vs CHA
The model
How this number was built
CLE 112.39–104.49 CHA · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexCHA -5.3 vs CLE +4.0 · pred margin -7.1
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -0.7 vs +1.8 · back-to-back: CHA, CLE · model CHA 110.2–110.9 CLE
- Home field+2.8 pts to CHA
- RecordCHA 4-7 · CLE 5-6
- Market priorBlended 66% toward CLE -8.5 / total 215.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 28 | 25 | 27 | 32 | 112 |
| CHA | 29 | 40 | 38 | 17 | 124 |
Scoring plays
SCORE4th Quarter 7:4299–113Craig Porter Jr. makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot
SCORE4th Quarter 6:1599–115Coby White makes 9-foot fade away jump shot
- SCORE4th Quarter 5:20101–115
Craig Porter Jr. makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Norchad Omier assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 4:47103–115
Craig Porter Jr. makes 2-foot two point shot
- FT4th Quarter 4:47104–115
Craig Porter Jr. makes free throw 1 of 1
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 4:33104–118
Christian Anderson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Sion James assists)
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 4:17107–118
Thomas Bryant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Meleek Thomas assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:47110–118
Meleek Thomas makes 24-foot running jump shot (Craig Porter Jr. assists)
- TIP SHOT4th Quarter 3:26110–120
Ryan Kalkbrenner makes tip shot
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 2:44110–123
Royce O'Neale makes 25-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:21112–123
Meleek Thomas makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot
- FT4th Quarter 1:29112–124
Naz Reid makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| CLE | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Allen C · #31 | 19 | 12 | 5-5 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | -9 |
 E. Mobley C · #4 | 24 | 9 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -24 |
 J. Harden G · #1 | 25 | 11 | 3-9 | 2-7 | 3-3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -22 |
 D. Mitchell G · #45 | 23 | 11 | 4-11 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 |
 P. Watson G · #8 | 21 | 13 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -10 |
 M. Hezonja F · #33 | 17 | 10 | 5-11 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -16 |
 R. Minix F · #12 | 17 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +5 |
 T. Bryant C · #3 | 15 | 11 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 3-3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +18 |
N N. Omier C · #77 | 12 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +15 |
 C. Porter Jr. G · #9 | 17 | 9 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +7 |
 T. Proctor G · #24 | 23 | 6 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -20 |
 M. Thomas G · #15 | 27 | 18 | 7-12 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 |
| Team | 112 | 42-82 | 14-35 | 14-18 | 32 | 27 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 28 | 16 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CLE | CHA | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 42-82 | 44-93 |
| FG% | 51 | 47 |
| 3PT | 14-35 | 23-46 |
| 3P% | 40 | 50 |
| FT | 14-18 | 13-16 |
| FT% | 78 | 81 |
| REB | 32 | 49 |
| OR | 4 | 17 |
| DR | 28 | 32 |
| AST | 27 | 29 |
| STL | 9 | 9 |
| BLK | 6 | 3 |
| TO | 13 | 14 |
| TTO | 1 | 3 |
| ToTO | 14 | 17 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 1 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 20 | 21 |
| FBPs | 18 | 13 |
| PIP | 48 | 34 |
| PF | 16 | 16 |
| LL | 9 | 33 |
| LC | 3 | 3 |
| LPCT | 17 | 81 |
At lock CLE 112.39–104.49 CHA · CLE by 7.9 pts vs CHA +9.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp N. Reid · CHA
25 PTS · over 18.5J. Allen · CLE
19 MIN · 12 PTSGrayson Allen · CHA
STAT · 34 MIN · 27 PTS · 8-14 FG · 6-12 3PTMeleek Thomas · CLE
STAT · 27 MIN · 18 PTS · 7-12 FG · 4-6 3PTTidjane Salaun · CHA
STAT · 18 MIN · 14 PTS · 4-6 FG · 3-4 3PTPeyton Watson · CLE
STAT · 21 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-9 FG · 2-4 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · N. Reid Under 18.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Cavaliers vs Hornets pick result · Nov 9, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CHA +9.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day