New Orleans Pelicans at LA Clippers
Final · ClipperVision
123–139Last shot · Bennedict Mathurin makes driving dunk
At lock: projected NO 114.91–114.85 LAC
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2841496510
- Winner: Pelicans (50%)
- Spread: LAC +1.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 229.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)31
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. Williamson points | — | 21 | 25 | off 4 |
| T. Murphy III points | — | 19 | 26 | off 7 |
| R. Hachimura points | — | 12 | 14 | off 2 |
| D. Garland points | — | 20 | 24 | off 4 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: NO vs LAC
The model
How this number was built
NO 114.91–114.85 LAC · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexLAC -5.1 vs NO -7.3 · pred margin -0.1
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -0.5 vs -5.9 · back-to-back: LAC, NO · model LAC 121.0–113.4 NO
- Home field+2.8 pts to LAC
- RecordLAC 2-7 · NO 4-6
- Market priorBlended 80% toward NO -1.5 / total 226.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 28 | 32 | 35 | 28 | 123 |
| LAC | 28 | 39 | 35 | 37 | 139 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 3:24112–130Darius Garland makes free throw 2 of 2
JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 3:03115–130Trendon Watford makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 2:39115–133
Rui Hachimura makes 26-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)
- DUNK SHOT4th Quarter 1:59115–135
Nick Martinelli makes 3-foot dunk
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:48117–135
AJ Johnson makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:26117–137
Keaton Wagler makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot
- FT4th Quarter 1:18118–137
Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:18119–137
Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 57.3121–137
Bennedict Mathurin makes driving layup
- FT4th Quarter 47.7121–138
Baba Miller makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 47.7121–139
Baba Miller makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 10.4123–139
Bennedict Mathurin makes driving dunk
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| NO | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Z. Williamson F · #1 | 31 | 25 | 9-9 | 0-0 | 7-9 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
 T. Murphy III F · #25 | 30 | 26 | 9-17 | 4-9 | 4-4 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -10 |
 K. Matkovic F · #17 | 19 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -2 |
 D. Murray G · #5 | 28 | 6 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +4 |
 J. Fears G · #0 | 29 | 25 | 10-14 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | -1 |
 H. Jones F · #2 | 20 | 4 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -23 |
 S. Bey F · #41 | 26 | 13 | 3-12 | 1-6 | 6-6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -19 |
 T. Watford F · #9 | 17 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -16 |
 J. Reese F · #13 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 |
 D. Queen C · #22 | 21 | 8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -14 |
 B. McGowens G · #11 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 |
 B. Mathurin G · #24 | 9 | 6 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 |
 A. Johnson G · #14 | 3 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 |
 D. Jordan C · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Poole G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 123 | 41-81 | 10-29 | 31-35 | 35 | 23 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 29 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NO | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 41-81 | 46-84 |
| FG% | 51 | 55 |
| 3PT | 10-29 | 16-38 |
| 3P% | 34 | 42 |
| FT | 31-35 | 31-38 |
| FT% | 89 | 82 |
| REB | 35 | 36 |
| OR | 10 | 13 |
| DR | 25 | 23 |
| AST | 23 | 34 |
| STL | 6 | 8 |
| BLK | 2 | 2 |
| TO | 16 | 11 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 17 | 11 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 20 | 14 |
| FBPs | 15 | 11 |
| PIP | 52 | 60 |
| PF | 29 | 24 |
| LL | 4 | 20 |
| LC | 13 | 13 |
| LPCT | 13 | 83 |
At lock NO 114.91–114.85 LAC · NO by 0.1 pts vs LAC +1.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock · Play of the Day: LAC +1.5 locked at 55% when posted
HitProp D. Garland · LAC
10 AST · over 6.5Z. Williamson · NO
31 MIN · 25 PTSD. Jones Jr. · LAC
29 MIN · 8 PTSTrey Murphy III · NO
STAT · 30 MIN · 26 PTS · 9-17 FG · 4-9 3PTJeremiah Fears · NO
STAT · 29 MIN · 25 PTS · 10-14 FG · 3-5 3PTBrook Lopez · LAC
STAT · 26 MIN · 20 PTS · 8-11 FG · 1-2 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · D. Garland Under 6.5 ast
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Pelicans vs Clippers pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is LAC +1.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day