Brooklyn Nets at Dallas Mavericks
Final · DAZN (YES)
93–130Last shot · Josh Minott misses 27-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected BKN 106.97–114.76 DAL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 660656303
- Winner: Mavericks (74%)
- Spread: BKN +8.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 219.5 (63%)
- Score error (both teams)29
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Flagg points | — | 22 | 25 | off 3 |
| J. Randle points | — | 21 | 13 | off -8 |
| P.J. Washington points | — | 14 | 6 | off -8 |
| M. Porter Jr. points | — | 23 | 19 | off -4 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: BKN vs DAL
The model
How this number was built
BKN 106.97–114.76 DAL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexDAL -0.1 vs BKN -5.9 · pred margin +7.6
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -2.2 vs -6.2 · back-to-back: DAL, BKN · model DAL 116.6–110.4 BKN
- Home field+2.8 pts to DAL
- RecordDAL 6-4 · BKN 2-8
- Market priorBlended 66% toward DAL -7.5 / total 223.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKN | 26 | 20 | 25 | 22 | 93 |
| DAL | 33 | 33 | 34 | 30 | 130 |
Scoring plays
SCORE4th Quarter 3:1789–119Drake Powell makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot (Keon Ellis assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:5091–119
Josh Minott makes 1-foot running dunk (Keon Ellis assists)
- FT4th Quarter 2:3392–119
Danny Wolf makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2:3393–119
Danny Wolf makes free throw 2 of 2
FT4th Quarter 2:0893–120Marcus Sasser makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2:0893–121
Marcus Sasser makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:2193–123
Marcus Sasser makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 58.193–126
Jett Howard makes 29-foot three point jumper (Moussa Cisse assists)
- FT4th Quarter 39.693–127
Jett Howard makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 39.693–128
Jett Howard makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 22.793–129
Moussa Cisse makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 22.793–130
Moussa Cisse makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| BKN | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Randle F · #30 | 30 | 13 | 5-10 | 0-1 | 3-6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -33 |
 M. Porter Jr. F · #17 | 29 | 19 | 5-15 | 4-11 | 5-7 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 2 | -16 |
 D. Wolf F · #2 | 36 | 10 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -29 |
 D. Sharpe C · #20 | 20 | 6 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -14 |
 N. Traore G · #10 | 21 | 14 | 6-15 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -25 |
 J. Minott F · #00 | 12 | 10 | 4-10 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -8 |
 N. Clowney F · #21 | 8 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -1 |
 C. Johnson F · #31 | 15 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -19 |
 M. Wagner C · #13 | 16 | 12 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 3-5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -9 |
 T. Mann G · #14 | 22 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -14 |
 K. Ellis G · #1 | 22 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -9 |
 D. Powell G · #4 | 9 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -8 |
| Team | 93 | 31-80 | 11-39 | 20-28 | 30 | 23 | 16 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 27 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| BKN | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 31-80 | 48-84 |
| FG% | 39 | 57 |
| 3PT | 11-39 | 14-35 |
| 3P% | 28 | 40 |
| FT | 20-28 | 20-22 |
| FT% | 71 | 91 |
| REB | 30 | 46 |
| OR | 10 | 12 |
| DR | 20 | 34 |
| AST | 23 | 31 |
| STL | 9 | 7 |
| BLK | 4 | 4 |
| TO | 16 | 20 |
| TTO | 1 | 1 |
| ToTO | 17 | 21 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 24 | 25 |
| FBPs | 19 | 26 |
| PIP | 40 | 64 |
| PF | 27 | 25 |
| LL | 0 | 37 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 99 |
At lock BKN 106.97–114.76 DAL · DAL by 7.8 pts vs BKN +8.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp K. Irving · DAL
21 PTS · over 20.5J. Randle · BKN
30 MIN · 13 PTSC. Martin · DAL
19 MIN · 2 PTSCooper Flagg · DAL
STAT · 28 MIN · 25 PTS · 8-13 FG · 3-5 3PTMichael Porter Jr. · BKN
STAT · 29 MIN · 19 PTS · 5-15 FG · 4-11 3PTDaniel Gafford · DAL
STAT · 19 MIN · 18 PTS · 7-8 FG · 4-6 FT
Data-Driven Pick · K. Irving Under 20.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Nets vs Mavericks pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is BKN +8.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day